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Herding, Trend Chasing and Market Volatility

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Abstract

We introduce a heterogeneous agent asset pricing model in continuoustime to show that trend chasing, switching and herding all contribute to market volatility in price and return and volatility clustering, but their impact are different. On the one hand, the fluctuations of market price and return and the level of the significant autocorrelations (ACs) of the absolute and squared returns increase with herding and trend chasing based on long time horizon. On the other hand, the switching reduces the return volatility and an initial increase in switching reduces the price volatility and increases the level of the significant ACs, but the effect becomes opposite when the switching increases further. We also show that market noise plays more important role than fundamental noise on the power-law behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Corrado Di Guilmi & Xue-Zhong He & Kai Li, 2013. "Herding, Trend Chasing and Market Volatility," Research Paper Series 337, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  • Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:337
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Heterogeneous beliefs; herding; switching; stability; volatility; stochastic delay differential equations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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