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An Evolutionary CAPM Under Heterogeneous Beliefs

  • Carl Chiarella

    (Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney)

  • Roberto Dieci

    (Department of Mathematics, University of Bologna)

  • Xue-Zhong He

    ()

    (Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney)

  • Kai Li

    ()

    (Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney)

Heterogeneity and evolutionary behaviour of investors are two of the most important characteristics of financial markets. This papers incorporates the adaptive behaviour of agents with heterogeneous beliefs and establishes an evolutionary capital asset pricing model (ECAPM) within the mean-variance framework. We show that the rational behaviour of agents switching to better performing trading strategies can cause large deviations of the market price from the fundamental value of one asset to spill over to other assets. Also, this spill-over effect is associated with high trading volumes and persistent volatility characterized by significantly decaying autocorrelations of, and positive correlation between, price volatility and trading volume.

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File URL: http://www.qfrc.uts.edu.au/research/research_papers/rp315.pdf
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Paper provided by Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney in its series Research Paper Series with number 315.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2012
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published as: Chiarella, C., Dieci, R., He, X. and Li, K., 2013, "An Evolutionary CAPM Under Heterogeneous Beliefs", Annals of Finance, 9(2), 185-215.
Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:315
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  3. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2008. "Heterogeneity, Market Mechanisms, and Asset Price Dynamics," Research Paper Series 231, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
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  9. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2010. "Time-Varying Beta: A Boundedly Rational Equilibrium Approach," Research Paper Series 275, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
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  13. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2009. "A Framework for CAPM with Heterogenous Beliefs," Research Paper Series 254, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  14. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2011. "Do heterogeneous beliefs diversify market risk?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 241-258.
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  19. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong & Zheng, Min, 2011. "An analysis of the effect of noise in a heterogeneous agent financial market model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 148-162, January.
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  24. Chen, Shu-Heng & Huang, Ya-Chi, 2008. "Risk preference, forecasting accuracy and survival dynamics: Simulations based on a multi-asset agent-based artificial stock market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(3-4), pages 702-717, September.
  25. He, Xue-Zhong & Li, Youwei, 2007. "Power-law behaviour, heterogeneity, and trend chasing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3396-3426, October.
  26. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February.
  27. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Laura Gardini, 2005. "The Dynamic Interaction of Speculation and Diversification," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 17-52.
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