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On the Macrodynamics of COVID-19 Vaccination


  • Datta, Soumya

    (South Asian University, New Delhi)

  • C. Saratchand

    (Satyawati College, University of Delhi)


We set up a macroeconomic epidemiological (SIR) model to evaluate the role of vaccination in the interactive dynamics of COVID-19 and the economy. We analytically examine the existence and local stability properties of the four steady states and find strong support for a locally stable interior equilibrium where the economy grows in the continued presence of the pandemic. We also find that it might be possible to attain a pandemic-free economic revival only if the rate of recovery from infection is faster than a threshold level. We examine, both analytically and numerically, the impact of various types of policy interventions, including non-pharmaceutical interventions involving restrictions on economic activities (like lockdowns and travel restrictions) as well as speeding up the rate of vaccination. We find that under reasonable parameter configurations, a combination of large-scale vaccination as well as non-pharmaceutical interventions are required to meet the twin objectives of controlling the pandemic and reviving the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Datta, Soumya & C. Saratchand, 2021. "On the Macrodynamics of COVID-19 Vaccination," Working Papers 21/352, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  • Handle: RePEc:npf:wpaper:21/352
    Note: Working Paper 352, 2021

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Patnaik, Ila & Sengupta, Rajeshwari, 2022. "Analyzing India's Exchange Rate Regime," India Policy Forum, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 18(1), pages 53-85.

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    More about this item


    COVID-19 ; health ; stability ; vaccination ; non pharmaceutical intervention;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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