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Regional growth and disparities in a post‐COVID Europe: A new normality scenario

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  • Roberta Capello
  • Andrea Caragliu

Abstract

This paper addresses the important question “Which European areas will be able to better react to the crisis induced by COVID‐19 and how regional disparities will look like?” To provide an answer, a “new normality” scenario is built, comprising the structural changes likely to take place in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic. To develop such scenario, two intermediate steps are necessary, in both cases relying on the use of the latest generation of the MAcroeconomic, Sectoral, Social, Territorial (MASST4) model. First, short‐run costs of the COVID‐induced lockdowns, in terms of missed GDP, are calculated for all European NUTS2 regions, needed because of the lack of short‐run statistics about the extent of the regional costs caused by the lockdowns that will only appear in 2 years. Second, a long‐run simulation of the economic rebound expected to take place from 2021 through 2030 is presented, assuming, among other trends, that no further national lockdowns will be undertaken in European countries. In the “new normality” scenario, regional disparity trends will decrease as a result of a decisive rebound of those countries mostly hit by the pandemic.

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  • Roberta Capello & Andrea Caragliu, 2021. "Regional growth and disparities in a post‐COVID Europe: A new normality scenario," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 710-727, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jregsc:v:61:y:2021:i:4:p:710-727
    DOI: 10.1111/jors.12542
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    2. Marcos Díaz Ramírez & Paolo Veneri & Alexander C. Lembcke, 2022. "Where did it hit harder? Understanding the geography of excess mortality during the COVID‐19 pandemic," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(3), pages 889-908, June.
    3. Mendieta-Aragón, Adrián & Rodríguez-Fernández, Laura & Navío-Marco, Julio, 2023. "Tourism usage of digital collaborative economy platforms in Europe: situation, behaviours and implication for the digital policies," 32nd European Regional ITS Conference, Madrid 2023: Realising the digital decade in the European Union – Easier said than done? 278002, International Telecommunications Society (ITS).
    4. Wu, Jianxin & Zhan, Xiaoling & Xu, Hui & Ma, Chunbo, 2023. "The economic impacts of COVID-19 and city lockdown: Early evidence from China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 151-165.
    5. Andrea Caragliu, 2021. "Survival of the city: Living and thriving in an age of isolation By Edward Glaeser and David Cutler, Penguin Press, 2021. 480 pages. $14.99 (Kindle). ISBN 0593297687," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(4), pages 1105-1110, August.
    6. Zubarevich, N., 2021. "Regions of Russia during a pandemic: Socio-economic dynamics and budget revenues," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 208-218.
    7. O. V. Kuznetsova, 2021. "Economy of Russian Regions in the Pandemic: Are Resilience Factors At Work?," Regional Research of Russia, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 419-427, October.
    8. Adolfo Cristóbal Campoamor & Ernesto Rodríguez-Crespo, 2023. "Rekindling New Economic Geography in Times of COVID-19: Labor Mobility Responses to Health Shocks in Central and North America," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 46(5-6), pages 523-551, September.

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