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Modelling Regional Growth: An Advanced MASST Model

  • Roberta Capello
  • Ugo Fratesi

This paper presents a new version of a forecasting regional growth model called MASST (MAcroeconomic, Sectoral, Social, Territorial model). This new version is specifically designed to take account of sectoral and social (intangible) effects on the growth of regions, and it is therefore able to produce scenarios for all European regions according to differentiated industrial specializations and future industrial patterns of growth. The value added of this version of the model is threefold: (i) its capacity to show scenario results based on industrial resource reallocation; (ii) to measure the impacts of scenario assumptions on manufacturing and service employment separately; and (iii) its capacity to take intangible elements (like social capital) into account in regional macro-econometric growth models. RÉSUMÉ Cette communication présente une nouvelle version d'un modèle de prévision de l'expansion régionale appelé MASST ( MA croeconomic, S ectoral, S ocial, T erritorial Model ). Cette nouvelle version a été conçue spécifiquement pour tenir compte des effets sectoriels et sociaux (incorporels) sur l'expansion régionale, et est, par conséquent, en mesure de produire des scénarios pour toutes les régions d'Europe, d'après des spécialisations industrielles différentiées et des configurations industrielles futures de l'expansion. Cette version du modèle ajoute de la valeur à trois niveaux : (i) elle montre des résultats de scénarios sur la base d'une réaffectation des ressources industrielles ; (ii) elle a la mesure séparée des impacts des hypothèses sur l'emploi dans le secteur industriels et tertiaire ; (iii) elle a la capacité de tenir compte d’éléments de l'incorporel (capital social, par exemple) dans les modèles d'expansion macro-économique régionaux. EXTRACTO Este estudio presenta una nueva versión de un modelo de previsión de crecimiento regional denominado MASST (Modelo MAcroeconómico, Sectorial, Social, Territorial). Esta nueva versión se ha diseñado específicamente para tener en cuenta los efectos sectoriales y sociales (intangibles) sobre el crecimiento de regiones y, por lo tanto, es capaz de producir panoramas para todas las regiones europeas según especializaciones industriales diferenciadas y modelos de crecimiento industrial futuro. El valor añadido de esta versión del modelo tiene tres aspectos: (i) su capacidad para mostrar resultados de panoramas basados en la reasignación de recursos industriales; (ii) medir por separado los impactos de las suposiciones de panoramas sobre el empleo en fabricación y servicios; (iii) su capacidad para tener en cuenta elementos intangibles (como el capital social) en modelos de crecimiento macroeconómico regional.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17421772.2012.694143
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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Spatial Economic Analysis.

Volume (Year): 7 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 293-318

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Handle: RePEc:taf:specan:v:7:y:2012:i:3:p:293-318
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