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After crisis scenarios for Europe: alternative evolutions of structural adjustments

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  • Roberta Capello
  • Andrea Caragliu

Abstract

Structural adjustment in the European Union emerged as the result of the 7-year crisis, providing risks and opportunities to national and regional economies. The effects that these structural changes will generate are difficult to be foreseen. This article builds after-crisis scenarios for Europe on the basis of alternative evolutions of these structural changes. On the basis of a regional forecasting model (MASST3), the article presents two opposite scenarios: the ‘place-based’ competitiveness’ and the ‘social cohesion’ one. Results unexpectedly show that the place-based competitiveness scenario achieves both the highest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rates and the lowest increase in regional disparities.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberta Capello & Andrea Caragliu, 2016. "After crisis scenarios for Europe: alternative evolutions of structural adjustments," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 9(1), pages 81-101.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:cjrecs:v:9:y:2016:i:1:p:81-101.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/cjres/rsv023
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Philip McCann & Ortega Ortega-Argilés, 2014. "The Role of the Smart Specialisation Agenda in a Reformed EU Cohesion Policy," SCIENZE REGIONALI, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2014(1), pages 15-32.
    2. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
    3. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
    4. Visintin Stefano & Maroto Andres & Di Meglio Gisela & Rubalcaba Luis, 2010. "The Role of Cost Related Factors in the Competitiveness of European Services," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-25, October.
    5. repec:spr:adspsc:978-3-642-19251-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:spr:adspsc:978-3-540-74737-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Roberta Capello & Andrea Caragliu & Ugo Fratesi, 2016. "The costs of the economic crisis: which scenario for the European regions?," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 34(1), pages 113-130, February.
    8. Roberta Capello & Ugo Fratesi, 2012. "Modelling Regional Growth: An Advanced MASST Model," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 293-318, September.
    9. Roberta Capello & Andrea Caragliu & Ugo Fratesi, 2017. "Modeling Regional Growth between Competitiveness and Austerity Measures," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 40(1), pages 38-74, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lisa Gianmoena & Vicente Rios, 2018. "The Determinants of Resilience in European Regions During the Great Recession: a Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Discussion Papers 2018/235, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    2. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2017. "Addressing the Core-Periphery Imbalances in Europe: Resource Misallocation and Expansionary Fiscal Policies," EconPol Working Paper 6, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    3. repec:tou:journl:v:48:y:2018:p:53-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Juan R. Cuadrado-Roura & Ron Martin & Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, 2016. "The economic crisis in Europe: urban and regional consequences," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 9(1), pages 3-11.

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