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Heterogeneous expectations and exchange rate dynamics


  • Carl Chiarella
  • Xue-Zhong He
  • Min Zheng


This article presents a continuous-time model of exchange rates not only relying on macroeconomic factors but also having an investor heterogeneity component. The driving macroeconomic factor is the domestic--foreign interest rate differential, while the investor heterogeneity is described by the expectations of boundedly rational portfolio managers who use a weighted average of the expectations of fundamentalists and chartists. Within this framework, the different roles of the macroeconomic factor and investor heterogeneity in the determination of the exchange rate are examined explicitly. We show that this simple model generates very complicated market behaviour, including the existence of multiple steady-state equilibria, deviations of the market exchange rate from the fundamental one and market fluctuations. Numerical simulation of the corresponding stochastic version of the model shows that the model is able to generate typical time series and volatility clustering patterns observed in exchange rate markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He & Min Zheng, 2013. "Heterogeneous expectations and exchange rate dynamics," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 392-419, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:19:y:2013:i:5:p:392-419 DOI: 10.1080/1351847X.2011.601690

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2008. "Heterogeneity, Market Mechanisms, and Asset Price Dynamics," Research Paper Series 231, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
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    4. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2002. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 95-132, February.
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    8. Chiarella, Carl & Dieci, Roberto & Gardini, Laura, 2002. "Speculative behaviour and complex asset price dynamics: a global analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 173-197, October.
    9. De Grauwe, Paul & Grimaldi, Marianna, 2006. "Exchange rate puzzles: A tale of switching attractors," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 1-33, January.
    10. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
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    13. De Grauwe, Paul & Grimaldi, Marianna, 2005. "Heterogeneity of agents, transactions costs and the exchange rate," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 691-719, April.
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    16. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wilson Sy, 2009. "Towards a national default option for low-cost superannuation," Accounting Research Journal, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 22(1), pages 46-67, July.
    2. Peter Flaschel & Florian Hartmann & Christopher Malikane & Christian Proaño, 2015. "A Behavioral Macroeconomic Model of Exchange Rate Fluctuations with Complex Market Expectations Formation," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 669-691, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics


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