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Charts, Noise and Fundamentals: A Study of the London Foreign Exchange Market

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  • Taylor, Mark P

Abstract

Recent research in financial economics has concentrated on the role of non-economic, or non-fundamentalist, speculators in asset markets. This paper presents some empirical evidence concerning the nature and perceived importance of a major form of non-fundamentalist analysis, chartism, in the London foreign exchange market. It analyzes the results of a questionnaire survey on chartism conducted among chief foreign exchange dealers in the London market and data on a panel of chartists' one-week and four-week-ahead exchange rate predictions. The analysis suggests that a majority of chief dealers use at least some chartist input into their trading decisions, especially at the shorter time horizo.

Suggested Citation

  • Taylor, Mark P, 1989. "Charts, Noise and Fundamentals: A Study of the London Foreign Exchange Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 341, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:341
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bertrand Maillet & Thierry Michel, 2000. "Further insights on the puzzle of technical analysis profitability," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 196-224.
    2. Pollock, Andrew C. & Macaulay, Alex & Onkal-Atay, Dilek & Wilkie-Thomson, Mary E., 1999. "Evaluating predictive performance of judgemental extrapolations from simulated currency series," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 281-293, April.
    3. Paul Grauwe & Hans Dewachter, 1993. "A chaotic model of the exchange rate: The role of fundamentalists and chartists," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 351-379, December.
    4. Ahrens, Ralf & Reitz, Stefan, 2003. "Heterogeneous Expectations in the Foreign Exchange Market Evidence from the Daily Dollar/DM Exchange Rate," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/11, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    5. Hung, Juann H, 1997. "Intervention strategies and exchange rate volatility: a noise trading perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 779-793, September.
    6. Katarzyna Dąbrowska-Gruszczyńska & Marcin Gruszczyński, 2009. "The introduction of the euro in the perspective of accession and the challenges of absorption," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 22.
    7. Berk, Jan Marc & Knot, Klaas H. W., 2001. "Testing for long horizon UIP using PPP-based exchange rate expectations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 377-391, February.
    8. Marcin Gruszczyński, 2007. "Repression versus free and controlled market. Research into the (weak) effectiveness of the Polish foreign currency (US dollar/zloty) market over the years 1983–1989 and 1991–2006," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 19.
    9. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth Froot, 1990. "Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 3470, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Marco Arnone, 2004. "Teoria dei Processi Imitativi e Applicazioni Economiche," International Finance 0404012, EconWPA.

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