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Evaluating predictive performance of judgemental extrapolations from simulated currency series

  • Pollock, Andrew C.
  • Macaulay, Alex
  • Onkal-Atay, Dilek
  • Wilkie-Thomson, Mary E.
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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VCT-3W1HK79-6/2/bd9299f339ffd050fc3023221d981753
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Journal of Operational Research.

    Volume (Year): 114 (1999)
    Issue (Month): 2 (April)
    Pages: 281-293

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:114:y:1999:i:2:p:281-293
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor

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    3. Harvey, Nigel & Bolger, Fergus, 1996. "Graphs versus tables: Effects of data presentation format on judgemental forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 119-137, March.
    4. Richard Meese & Kenneth Rogoff & Jacob Frenkel, . "The Out-of-Sample Failure of Empirical Exchange Rate Models: Sampling Error or Misspecification?," Working Paper 32044, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    5. Kuan, Chung-Ming & Liu, Tung, 1995. "Forecasting Exchange Rates Using Feedforward and Recurrent Neural Networks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 347-64, Oct.-Dec..
    6. O'Connor, Marcus & Remus, William & Griggs, Ken, 1993. "Judgemental forecasting in times of change," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 163-172, August.
    7. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-22, September.
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    10. Webby, Richard & O'Connor, Marcus, 1996. "Judgemental and statistical time series forecasting: a review of the literature," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 91-118, March.
    11. Benson, P. George & Onkal, Dilek, 1992. "The effects of feedback and training on the performance of probability forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 559-573, December.
    12. Winklhofer, Heidi & Diamantopoulos, Adamantios & Witt, Stephen F., 1996. "Forecasting practice: A review of the empirical literature and an agenda for future research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 193-221, June.
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    14. Onkal, Dilek & Muradoglu, Gulnur, 1996. "Effects of task format on probabilistic forecasting of stock prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 9-24, March.
    15. Yates, J. Frank & Price, Paul C. & Lee, Ju-Whei & Ramirez, James, 1996. "Good probabilistic forecasters: The 'consumer's' perspective," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 41-56, March.
    16. O'Connor, Marcus & Lawrence, Michael, 1992. "Time series characteristics and the widths of judgemental confidence intervals," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 413-420, March.
    17. Onkal, Dilek & Muradoglu, Gulnur, 1994. "Evaluating probabilistic forecasts of stock prices in a developing stock market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 350-358, April.
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    19. Pollock, Andrew C. & Wilkie, Mary E., 1996. "The quality of bank forecasts: The dollar-pound exchange rate, 1990-1993," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 306-314, June.
    20. Armstrong, J. Scott & Collopy, Fred, 1992. "Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 69-80, June.
    21. Ang, Soon & O'Connor, Marcus, 1991. "The effect of group interaction processes on performance in time series extrapolation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 141-149, August.
    22. Fildes, Robert, 1992. "The evaluation of extrapolative forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 81-98, June.
    23. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    24. Lim, Joa Sang & O'Connor, Marcus, 1996. "Judgmental forecasting with time series and causal information," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 139-153, March.
    25. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Ltaifa, Nabil, 1992. "Effects of exchange rate risk on exports: crosscountry analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 20(8), pages 1173-1181, August.
    26. Bhagwan Chowdhry, 1995. "Corporate Hedging of Exchange Risk When Foreign Currency Cash Flow Is Uncertain," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(6), pages 1083-1090, June.
    27. Stockman, Alan C., 1987. "Economic theory and exchange rate forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 3-15.
    28. Mussa, Michael, 1976. " The Exchange Rate, the Balance of Payments and Monetary and Fiscal Policy under a Regime of Controlled Floating," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 229-48.
    29. Chinn, Menzie D. & Meese, Richard A., 1995. "Banking on currency forecasts: How predictable is change in money?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 161-178, February.
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    32. Goodwin, Paul & Wright, George, 1993. "Improving judgmental time series forecasting: A review of the guidance provided by research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 147-161, August.
    33. Lastrapes, William D, 1992. "Sources of Fluctuations in Real and Nominal Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(3), pages 530-39, August.
    34. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
    35. Allen, Helen & Taylor, Mark P, 1990. "Charts, Noise and Fundamentals in the London Foreign Exchange Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(400), pages 49-59, Supplemen.
    36. Lawrence, Michael & O'Connor, Marcus, 1993. "Scale, Variability, and the Calibration of Judgmental Prediction Intervals," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 441-458, December.
    37. Remus, William & O'Connor, Marcus & Griggs, Kenneth, 1995. "Does reliable information improve the accuracy of judgmental forecasts?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 285-293, June.
    38. Wilkie, Mary E. & Pollock, Andrew C., 1996. "An application of probability judgement accuracy measures to currency forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 25-40, March.
    39. Liu, Te-Ru & Gerlow, Mary E. & Irwin, Scott H., 1994. "The performance of alternative VAR models in forecasting exchange rates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 419-433, November.
    40. Goldberg, Michael D & Frydman, Roman, 1996. "Imperfect Knowledge and Behaviour in the Foreign Exchange Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 869-93, July.
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