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Accuracy of judgmental extrapolation of time series data: Characteristics, causes, and remediation strategies for forecasting

Listed author(s):
  • Welch, Eric
  • Bretschneider, Stuart
  • Rohrbaugh, John

No abstract is available for this item.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169-2070(97)00055-1
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 14 (1998)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 95-110

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:14:y:1998:i:1:p:95-110
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Goodwin, Paul & Wright, George, 1993. "Improving judgmental time series forecasting: A review of the guidance provided by research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 147-161, August.
  2. repec:bla:joares:v:20:y:1982:i:1:p:68-102 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Remus, William & O'Connor, Marcus & Griggs, Kenneth, 1995. "Does reliable information improve the accuracy of judgmental forecasts?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 285-293, June.
  4. Lawrence, Michael & Makridakis, Spyros, 1989. "Factors affecting judgmental forecasts and confidence intervals," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 172-187, April.
  5. Bretschneider, Stuart I. & Gorr, Wilpen L. & Grizzle, Gloria & Klay, Earle, 1989. "Political and organizational influences on the accuracy of forecasting state government revenues," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 307-319.
  6. Arkes, Hal R. & Dawes, Robyn M. & Christensen, Caryn, 1986. "Factors influencing the use of a decision rule in a probabilistic task," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 93-110, February.
  7. Hill, Tim & Marquez, Leorey & O'Connor, Marcus & Remus, William, 1994. "Artificial neural network models for forecasting and decision making," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 5-15, June.
  8. Fred Collopy & J. Scott Armstrong, 1992. "Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(10), pages 1394-1414, October.
  9. Robin M. Hogarth & Spyros Makridakis, 1981. "Forecasting and Planning: An Evaluation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(2), pages 115-138, February.
  10. Makridakis, Spyros & Chatfield, Chris & Hibon, Michele & Lawrence, Michael & Mills, Terence & Ord, Keith & Simmons, LeRoy F., 1993. "The M2-competition: A real-time judgmentally based forecasting study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 5-22, April.
  11. Dalrymple, Douglas J., 1987. "Sales forecasting practices: Results from a United States survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(3-4), pages 379-391.
  12. Lawrence, Michael & O'Connor, Marcus, 1992. "Exploring judgemental forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 15-26, June.
  13. Willemain, Thomas R., 1991. "The effect of graphical adjustment on forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-154, August.
  14. Powell, Jack L., 1991. "An attempt at increasing decision rule use in a judgment task," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 89-99, February.
  15. Robert Carbone & Allan Andersen & Yvan Corriveau & Paul Piat Corson, 1983. "Comparing for Different Time Series Methods the Value of Technical Expertise Individualized Analysis, and Judgmental Adjustment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(5), pages 559-566, May.
  16. Ashton, Robert H., 1992. "Effects of justification and a mechanical aid on judgment performance," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 292-306, July.
  17. N. Castellan, 1973. "Comments on the “lens model” equation and the analysis of multiple-cue judgment tasks," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 38(1), pages 87-100, March.
  18. Sanders, NR, 1992. "Accuracy of judgmental forecasts: A comparison," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 353-364, May.
  19. McNees, Stephen K., 1990. "The role of judgment in macroeconomic forecasting accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 287-299, October.
  20. M. J. Lawrence & R. H. Edmundson & M. J. O'Connor, 1986. "The Accuracy of Combining Judgemental and Statistical Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(12), pages 1521-1532, December.
  21. Armstrong, J. Scott & Collopy, Fred, 1992. "Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 69-80, June.
  22. Meese, Richard & Geweke, John, 1984. "A Comparison of Autoregressive Univariate Forecasting Procedures for Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(3), pages 191-200, July.
  23. Arkes, Hal R. & Christensen, Caryn & Lai, Cheryl & Blumer, Catherine, 1987. "Two methods of reducing overconfidence," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 133-144, February.
  24. Thomas Stewart, 1976. "Components of correlation and extensions of the lens model equation," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 101-120, March.
  25. Fildes, Robert, 1992. "The evaluation of extrapolative forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 81-98, June.
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