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Two methods of reducing overconfidence

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  • Arkes, Hal R.
  • Christensen, Caryn
  • Lai, Cheryl
  • Blumer, Catherine

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  • Arkes, Hal R. & Christensen, Caryn & Lai, Cheryl & Blumer, Catherine, 1987. "Two methods of reducing overconfidence," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 133-144, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jobhdp:v:39:y:1987:i:1:p:133-144
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Davis, James H., 1992. "Some compelling intuitions about group consensus decisions, theoretical and empirical research, and interpersonal aggregation phenomena: Selected examples 1950-1990," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, pages 3-38.
    2. Wright, William F. & Anderson, Urton, 1989. "Effects of situation familiarity and financial incentives on use of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic for probability assessment," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, pages 68-82.
    3. Ono, Kaoru & Tindale, R. Scott & Hulin, Charles L. & Davis, James H., 1988. "Intuition vs. deduction: Some thought experiments concerning Likert's linking-pin theory of organization," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, pages 135-154.
    4. Ritov, Ilana, 1996. "Anchoring in Simulated Competitive Market Negotiation," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, pages 16-25.
    5. Diekmann, Kristina A. & Tenbrunsel, Ann E. & Shah, Pri Pradhan & Schroth, Holly A. & Bazerman, Max H., 1996. "The Descriptive and Prescriptive Use of Previous Purchase Price in Negotiations," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, pages 179-191.
    6. Kameda, Tatsuya & Davis, James H., 1990. "The function of the reference point in individual and group risk decision making," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, pages 55-76.
    7. Argote, Linda & Seabright, Mark A. & Dyer, Linda, 1986. "Individual versus group use of base-rate and individuating information," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, pages 65-75.
    8. Huber, Vandra L. & Neale, Margaret A., 1986. "Effects of cognitive heuristics and goals on negotiator performance and subsequent goal setting," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, pages 342-365.
    9. repec:bla:joares:v:19:y:1981:i:1:p:120-145 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Stone, Dan N. & Ziebart, David A., 1995. "A Model of Financial Incentive Effects in Decision Making," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, pages 250-261.
    11. Davis, Harry L & Hoch, Stephen J & Ragsdale, E K Easton, 1986. " An Anchoring and Adjustment Model of Spousal Predictions," Journal of Consumer Research, Oxford University Press, pages 25-37.
    12. Sniezek, Janet A., 1992. "Groups under uncertainty: An examination of confidence in group decision making," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, pages 124-155.
    13. Sniezek, Janet A. & Henry, Rebecca A., 1989. "Accuracy and confidence in group judgment," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, pages 1-28.
    14. Sniezek, Janet A., 1988. "Prediction with single event versus aggregate data," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, pages 196-210.
    15. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1986. "Rational Choice and the Framing of Decisions," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages 251-278, October.
    16. Stasser, Garold, 1992. "Information salience and the discovery of hidden profiles by decision-making groups: A "thought experiment"," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, pages 156-181.
    17. Switzer, Fred S. & Sniezek, Janet A., 1991. "Judgment processes in motivation: Anchoring and adjustment effects on judgment and behavior," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, pages 208-229.
    18. Block, Richard A. & Harper, David R., 1991. "Overconfidence in estimation: Testing the anchoring-and-adjustment hypothesis," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, pages 188-207.
    19. Whyte, Glen, 1993. "Escalating Commitment in Individual and Group Decision Making: A Prospect Theory Approach," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, pages 430-455.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ehrlinger, Joyce & Johnson, Kerri & Banner, Matthew & Dunning, David & Kruger, Justin, 2008. "Why the unskilled are unaware: Further explorations of (absent) self-insight among the incompetent," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 98-121, January.
    2. Tasoff, Joshua & Letzler, Robert, 2014. "Everyone believes in redemption: Nudges and overoptimism in costly task completion," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PA), pages 107-122.
    3. Michailova, Julija, 2010. "Development of the overconfidence measurement instrument for the economic experiment," MPRA Paper 26384, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Shepherd, Dean A. & Zacharakis, Andrew & Baron, Robert A., 2003. "VCs' decision processes: Evidence suggesting more experience may not always be better," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 381-401, May.
    5. Vandor, Peter & Franke, Nikolaus, 2016. "See Paris and… found a business? The impact of cross-cultural experience on opportunity recognition capabilities," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 388-407.
    6. Welch, Eric & Bretschneider, Stuart & Rohrbaugh, John, 1998. "Accuracy of judgmental extrapolation of time series data: Characteristics, causes, and remediation strategies for forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, pages 95-110.
    7. Harvey, Nigel & Fischer, Ilan, 1997. "Taking Advice: Accepting Help, Improving Judgment, and Sharing Responsibility," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 117-133, May.
    8. Brandts, Jordi & Garofalo, Orsola, 2012. "Gender pairings and accountability effects," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, pages 31-41.
    9. Kramer, Marc M., 2016. "Financial literacy, confidence and financial advice seeking," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 131(PA), pages 198-217.
    10. McKenzie, Craig R. M., 1997. "Underweighting Alternatives and Overconfidence," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 141-160, August.
    11. Ryvkin, Dmitry & Krajč, Marian & Ortmann, Andreas, 2012. "Are the unskilled doomed to remain unaware?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, pages 1012-1031.
    12. Michailova, Julija, 2010. "Development of the overconfidence measurement instrument for the economic experiment," MPRA Paper 26384, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Stone, Eric R. & Opel, Ryan B., 2000. "Training to Improve Calibration and Discrimination: The Effects of Performance and Environmental Feedback," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 282-309, November.
    14. Schwab, Abraham P., 2008. "Putting cognitive psychology to work: Improving decision-making in the medical encounter," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, pages 1861-1869.
    15. Zacharakis, Andrew L. & Shepherd, Dean A., 2001. "The nature of information and overconfidence on venture capitalists' decision making," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 311-332, July.
    16. Rose, Jason P. & Windschitl, Paul D., 2008. "How egocentrism and optimism change in response to feedback in repeated competitions," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 201-220, March.
    17. Erik Angner, 2006. "Economists as experts: Overconfidence in theory and practice," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 1-24.
    18. Sieck, Winston R. & Merkle, Edgar C. & Van Zandt, Trisha, 2007. "Option fixation: A cognitive contributor to overconfidence," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 68-83, May.

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