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Judgemental and statistical time series forecasting: a review of the literature

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  • Webby, Richard
  • O'Connor, Marcus

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  • Webby, Richard & O'Connor, Marcus, 1996. "Judgemental and statistical time series forecasting: a review of the literature," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 91-118, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:12:y:1996:i:1:p:91-118
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Newbold, Paul & Zumwalt, J. Kenton & Kannan, Srinivasan, 1987. "Combining forecasts to improve earnings per share prediction : An examination of electric utilities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 229-238.
    6. Makridakis, Spyros, 1988. "Metaforecasting : Ways of improving forecasting accuracy and usefulness," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 467-491.
    7. Eggleton, Irc, 1982. "Intuitive Time-Series Extrapolation," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 68-102.
    8. Diebold, Francis X., 1989. "Forecast combination and encompassing: Reconciling two divergent literatures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 589-592.
    9. Walker, Kb & Mcclelland, La, 1991. "Management Forecasts And Statistical Prediction Model Forecasts In Corporate Budgeting," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 371-381.
    10. Benson, P. George & Onkal, Dilek, 1992. "The effects of feedback and training on the performance of probability forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 559-573, December.
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    12. MacGregor, Donald & Lichtenstein, Sarah & Slovic, Paul, 1988. "Structuring knowledge retrieval: An analysis of decomposed quantitative judgments," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 303-323, December.
    13. Lobo, Gerald J., 1991. "Alternative methods of combining security analysts' and statistical forecasts of annual corporate earnings," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 57-63, May.
    14. Fred Collopy & J. Scott Armstrong, 1992. "Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(10), pages 1394-1414, October.
    15. Makridakis, Spyros & Chatfield, Chris & Hibon, Michele & Lawrence, Michael & Mills, Terence & Ord, Keith & Simmons, LeRoy F., 1993. "The M2-competition: A real-time judgmentally based forecasting study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 5-22, April.
    16. Balzer, William K. & Sulsky, Lorne M. & Hammer, Leslie B. & Sumner, Kenneth E., 1992. "Task information, cognitive information, or functional validity information: Which components of cognitive feedback affect performance?," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 35-54, October.
    17. O'Connor, Marcus, 1989. "Models of human behaviour and confidence in judgement: A review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 159-169.
    18. Thomas Cook & Paul Falchi & Reynaldo Mariano, 1984. "An Urban Allocation Model Combining Time Series and Analytic Hierarchical Methods," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(2), pages 198-208, February.
    19. Collopy, Fred & Armstrong, J. Scott, 1992. "Expert opinions about extrapolation and the mystery of the overlooked discontinuities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 575-582, December.
    20. Brown, Lawrence D. & Hagerman, Robert L. & Griffin, Paul A. & Zmijewski, Mark E., 1987. "Security analyst superiority relative to univariate time-series models in forecasting quarterly earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 61-87, April.
    21. Dalrymple, Douglas J., 1987. "Sales forecasting practices: Results from a United States survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(3-4), pages 379-391.
    22. Lawrence, Michael & O'Connor, Marcus, 1992. "Exploring judgemental forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 15-26, June.
    23. Willemain, Thomas R., 1991. "The effect of graphical adjustment on forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-154, August.
    24. Robert Conroy & Robert Harris, 1987. "Consensus Forecasts of Corporate Earnings: Analysts' Forecasts and Time Series Methods," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(6), pages 725-738, June.
    25. Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583.
    26. William Remus, 1984. "An Empirical Investigation of the Impact of Graphical and Tabular Data Presentations on Decision Making," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(5), pages 533-542, May.
    27. O'Connor, Marcus & Remus, William & Griggs, Ken, 1993. "Judgemental forecasting in times of change," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 163-172, August.
    28. Brown, Lawrence D., 1988. "Comparing judgmental to extrapolative forecasts: It's time to ask why and when," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 171-173.
    29. McNees, Stephen K., 1990. "The role of judgment in macroeconomic forecasting accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 287-299, October.
    30. Bathcelor, Roy & Dua, Pami, 1990. "Forecaster ideology, forecasting technique, and the accuracy of economic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 3-10.
    31. M. J. Lawrence & R. H. Edmundson & M. J. O'Connor, 1986. "The Accuracy of Combining Judgemental and Statistical Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(12), pages 1521-1532, December.
    32. Abramson, Bruce & Finizza, Anthony, 1991. "Using belief networks to forecast oil prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 299-315, November.
    33. Armstrong, J. Scott & Collopy, Fred, 1992. "Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 69-80, June.
    34. Henry, Rebecca A. & Sniezek, Janet A., 1993. "Situational Factors Affecting Judgments of Future Performance," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 104-132, February.
    35. Heejoon Kang, 1986. "Unstable Weights in the Combination of Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(6), pages 683-695, June.
    36. Wood, Robert E., 1986. "Task complexity: Definition of the construct," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 60-82, February.
    37. Robert C. Blattberg & Stephen J. Hoch, 1990. "Database Models and Managerial Intuition: 50% Model + 50% Manager," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(8), pages 887-899, August.
    38. William Remus, 1987. "A Study of Graphical and Tabular Displays and Their Interaction with Environmental Complexity," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(9), pages 1200-1204, September.
    39. Lance B. Kurke & Howard E. Aldrich, 1983. "Note---Mintzberg was Right!: A Replication and Extension of The Nature of Managerial Work," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(8), pages 975-984, August.
    40. Sanders, NR & Ritzman, LP, 1990. "Improving short-term forecasts," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 365-373.
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