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Database Models and Managerial Intuition: 50% Model + 50% Manager

Listed author(s):
  • Robert C. Blattberg

    (University of Chicago, Graduate School of Business, 1101 E. 58th Street, Chicago, Illinois 60637)

  • Stephen J. Hoch

    (University of Chicago, Graduate School of Business, 1101 E. 58th Street, Chicago, Illinois 60637)

Registered author(s):

    We focus on ways of combining simple database models with managerial intuition. We present a model and method for isolating managerial intuition. For five different business forecasting situations, our results indicate that a combination of model and manager always outperforms either of these decision inputs in isolation, an average R 2 increase of 0.09 (16%) above the best single decision input in cross-validated model analyses. We assess the validity of an equal weighting heuristic, 50% model + 50% manager, and then discuss why our results might differ from previous research on expert judgment.

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    Article provided by INFORMS in its journal Management Science.

    Volume (Year): 36 (1990)
    Issue (Month): 8 (August)
    Pages: 887-899

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    Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:36:y:1990:i:8:p:887-899
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