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Database Models and Managerial Intuition: 50% Model + 50% Manager

Author

Listed:
  • Robert C. Blattberg

    (University of Chicago, Graduate School of Business, 1101 E. 58th Street, Chicago, Illinois 60637)

  • Stephen J. Hoch

    (University of Chicago, Graduate School of Business, 1101 E. 58th Street, Chicago, Illinois 60637)

Abstract

We focus on ways of combining simple database models with managerial intuition. We present a model and method for isolating managerial intuition. For five different business forecasting situations, our results indicate that a combination of model and manager always outperforms either of these decision inputs in isolation, an average R 2 increase of 0.09 (16%) above the best single decision input in cross-validated model analyses. We assess the validity of an equal weighting heuristic, 50% model + 50% manager, and then discuss why our results might differ from previous research on expert judgment.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert C. Blattberg & Stephen J. Hoch, 1990. "Database Models and Managerial Intuition: 50% Model + 50% Manager," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(8), pages 887-899, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:36:y:1990:i:8:p:887-899
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.36.8.887
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Leech, Dennis, 1985. "Ownership Concentration and the Theory of the Firm : A Simple-Game-Theoretic Approach to Applied US Corporations in the 1930's," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 262, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    2. Guillermo Owen, 1972. "Multilinear Extensions of Games," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(5-Part-2), pages 64-79, January.
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