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Integrating management judgment and statistical methods to improve short-term forecasts

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  • Goodwin, Paul

Abstract

The complementary strengths that management judgment and statistical methods can bring to the forecasting process have been widely discussed. This paper reviews research on the effectiveness of methods that are designed to allow judgment and statistical methods to be integrated when short-term point forecasts are required. The application of both voluntary and mechanical integration methods are considered and conditions identified where the use of particular methods is appropriate, according to current research. While acknowledging the power of mechanical integration methods that exclude the judgmental forecaster from the integration process, the paper suggests that future research effort should focus on the design of forecasting support systems that facilitate voluntary integration.

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  • Goodwin, Paul, 2002. "Integrating management judgment and statistical methods to improve short-term forecasts," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 127-135, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:30:y:2002:i:2:p:127-135
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2006. "Formalizing judgemental adjustment of model-based forecasts," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2006-19, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    4. Webby, Richard & O'Connor, Marcus & Edmundson, Bob, 2005. "Forecasting support systems for the incorporation of event information: An empirical investigation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 411-423.
    5. Lee, Wing Yee & Goodwin, Paul & Fildes, Robert & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos & Lawrence, Michael, 2007. "Providing support for the use of analogies in demand forecasting tasks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 377-390.
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    7. Alvarado-Valencia, Jorge & Barrero, Lope H. & ├ľnkal, Dilek & Dennerlein, Jack T., 2017. "Expertise, credibility of system forecasts and integration methods in judgmental demand forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 298-313.
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    9. Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, 2010. "Forecasting with quantitative methods: the impact of special events in time series," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(8), pages 947-955.
    10. Huang, Tao & Fildes, Robert & Soopramanien, Didier, 2014. "The value of competitive information in forecasting FMCG retail product sales and the variable selection problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(2), pages 738-748.
    11. Kim, T.Y. & Dekker, R. & Heij, C., 2016. "The impact of forecasting errors on warehouse labor efficiency," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2016-10, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    12. Syntetos, Aris A. & Kholidasari, Inna & Naim, Mohamed M., 2016. "The effects of integrating management judgement into OUT levels: In or out of context?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 853-863.
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    14. Eksoz, Can & Mansouri, S. Afshin & Bourlakis, Michael, 2014. "Collaborative forecasting in the food supply chain: A conceptual framework," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 120-135.
    15. Nikolopoulos, K. & Goodwin, P. & Patelis, A. & Assimakopoulos, V., 2007. "Forecasting with cue information: A comparison of multiple regression with alternative forecasting approaches," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 180(1), pages 354-368, July.
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    17. Goodwin, Paul & Fildes, Robert & Lawrence, Michael & Stephens, Greg, 2011. "Restrictiveness and guidance in support systems," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 242-253, June.
    18. Philip Hans Franses, 2011. "Averaging Model Forecasts and Expert Forecasts: Why Does It Work?," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 41(2), pages 177-181, April.
    19. Bert de Bruijn & Philip Hans Franses, 2012. "Managing Sales Forecasters," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-131/III, Tinbergen Institute.

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