Statistical correction of judgmental point forecasts and decisions
In many organizations point estimates labelled as 'forecasts' are produced by human judgment rather than statistical methods. However, when these estimates are subject to asymmetric loss they are, in fact, decisions because they involve the selection of a value with the objective of minimizing loss. While there are often considerable advantages in using judgment to arrive at these decisions the psychological demands of the task may mean that the resulting decisions are sub-optimal when compared with those resulting from a normative decision model. In these circumstances a combination of statistical methods and judgment may be superior. This paper suggests a procedure which involves the statistical correction of the original decision to obtain a forecast and the subsequent use of a mathematical model to identify the theoretically optimal decision in the light of this forecast. The application of the procedure to the monthly decisions of a manufacturing company suggests that it may offer the potential for achieving substantial improvements in many practical contexts.
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Volume (Year): 24 (1996)
Issue (Month): 5 (October)
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References listed on IDEAS
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- Goodwin, Paul & Wright, George, 1993. "Improving judgmental time series forecasting: A review of the guidance provided by research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 147-161, August.
- Steven D. Wood & Bert M. Steece, 1978. "Forecasting the Product of Two Time Series with a Linear Asymmetric Error Cost Function," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(6), pages 690-701, February.
- Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583.
- Robert C. Blattberg & Stephen J. Hoch, 1990. "Database Models and Managerial Intuition: 50% Model + 50% Manager," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(8), pages 887-899, August.
- Goodwin, P & Wright, G, 1994. "Heuristics, biases and improvement strategies in judgmental time series forecasting," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 553-568, November.
- M. J. Lawrence & R. H. Edmundson & M. J. O'Connor, 1986. "The Accuracy of Combining Judgemental and Statistical Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(12), pages 1521-1532, December.
- Dalrymple, Douglas J., 1987. "Sales forecasting practices: Results from a United States survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(3-4), pages 379-391.
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