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Expectations, use and judgmental adjustment of external financial and economic forecasts: an empirical investigation

  • Sinan Gönül

    (Department of Business Administration, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Ankara, Turkey)

  • Dilek Önkal

    (Faculty of Business Administration, Bilkent University, Ankara, Turkey)

  • Paul Goodwin

    (School of Management, University of Bath, UK)

Registered author(s):

    A survey of 124 users of externally produced financial and economic forecasts in Turkey investigated their expectations and perceptions of forecast quality and their reasons for judgmentally adjusting forecasts. Expectations and quality perceptions mainly related to the timeliness of forecasts, the provision of a clear justifiable rationale and accuracy. Cost was less important. Forecasts were frequently adjusted when they lacked a justifiable explanation, when the user felt they could integrate their knowledge into the forecast, or where the user perceived a need to take responsibility for the forecast. Forecasts were less frequently adjusted when they came from a well-known source and were based on sound explanations and assumptions. The presence of feedback on accuracy reduced the influence of these factors. The seniority and experience of users had little effect on their attitudes or propensity to make adjustments. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.1082
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    Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): 28 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 19-37

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    Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:28:y:2009:i:1:p:19-37
    DOI: 10.1002/for.1082
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966

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    1. Harvey, Nigel & Harries, Clare & Fischer, Ilan, 2000. "Using Advice and Assessing Its Quality," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 252-273, March.
    2. Sanders, Nada R. & Manrodt, Karl B., 2003. "The efficacy of using judgmental versus quantitative forecasting methods in practice," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 511-522, December.
    3. Goodwin, P., 1996. "Statistical correction of judgmental point forecasts and decisions," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 551-559, October.
    4. Collopy, Fred & Armstrong, J. Scott, 1992. "Expert opinions about extrapolation and the mystery of the overlooked discontinuities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 575-582, December.
    5. Yokuma, J. Thomas & Armstrong, J. Scott, 1995. "Beyond accuracy: Comparison of criteria used to select forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 591-597, December.
    6. Willemain, Thomas R., 1989. "Graphical adjustment of statistical forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 179-185.
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