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Do experts' adjustments on model-based SKU-level forecasts improve forecast quality?

  • Philip Hans Franses

    (Econometric Institute, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, The Netherlands)

  • Rianne Legerstee

    (Econometric Institute, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, The Netherlands)

Model-based SKU-level forecasts are often adjusted by experts. In this paper we propose a statistical methodology to test whether these expert forecasts improve on model forecasts. Application of the methodology to a very large database concerning experts in 35 countries who adjust SKU-level forecasts for pharmaceutical products in seven distinct categories leads to the general conclusion that expert forecasts are equally good at best, but are more often worse than model-based forecasts. We explore whether this is due to experts putting too much weight on their contribution, and this indeed turns out to be the case. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 29 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 331-340

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Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:29:y:2010:i:3:p:331-340
DOI: 10.1002/for.1129
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