Do experts' adjustments on model-based SKU-level forecasts improve forecast quality?
Model-based SKU-level forecasts are often adjusted by experts. In this paper we propose a statistical methodology to test whether these expert forecasts improve on model forecasts. Application of the methodology to a very large database concerning experts in 35 countries who adjust SKU-level forecasts for pharmaceutical products in seven distinct categories leads to the general conclusion that expert forecasts are equally good at best, but are more often worse than model-based forecasts. We explore whether this is due to experts putting too much weight on their contribution, and this indeed turns out to be the case. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Volume (Year): 29 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966|
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:29:y:2010:i:3:p:331-340. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.