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Experts' Stated Behavior

Author

Listed:
  • Boulaksil, Y.
  • Franses, Ph.H.B.F.

Abstract

We ask various experts, who produce sales forecasts that can differ from earlier received model-based forecasts, what they do and why they do so. A questionnaire with a range of questions was completed by no less than forty-two such experts who are located in twenty different countries. We correlate the answers to these questions with actual behavior of the experts. Our main findings are that experts have a tendency to double count and to react strongly to recent volatility in sales data. Also, experts who feel more confident give forecasts that differ most from model-based forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Boulaksil, Y. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2008. "Experts' Stated Behavior," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2008-001-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureri:10900
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    Cited by:

    1. Dellaert, Benedict G.C. & Arentze, Theo A. & Timmermans, Harry J.P., 2008. "Shopping context and consumers’ mental representation of complex shopping trip decision problems," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 219-232.
    2. Boulaksil, Youssef, 2016. "Safety stock placement in supply chains with demand forecast updates," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 3(C), pages 27-31.
    3. Arvan, Meysam & Fahimnia, Behnam & Reisi, Mohsen & Siemsen, Enno, 2019. "Integrating human judgement into quantitative forecasting methods: A review," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 237-252.
    4. P H Franses & R Legerstee, 2011. "Experts' adjustment to model-based SKU-level forecasts: does the forecast horizon matter?," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(3), pages 537-543, March.
    5. Perera, H. Niles & Hurley, Jason & Fahimnia, Behnam & Reisi, Mohsen, 2019. "The human factor in supply chain forecasting: A systematic review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(2), pages 574-600.
    6. Philip Hans Franses, 2011. "Averaging Model Forecasts and Expert Forecasts: Why Does It Work?," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 41(2), pages 177-181, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • M - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics
    • M31 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising - - - Marketing
    • M39 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising - - - Other

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