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Experts' Stated Behavior

Author

Listed:
  • Boulaksil, Y.
  • Franses, Ph.H.B.F.

Abstract

We ask various experts, who produce sales forecasts that can differ from earlier received model-based forecasts, what they do and why they do so. A questionnaire with a range of questions was completed by no less than forty-two such experts who are located in twenty different countries. We correlate the answers to these questions with actual behavior of the experts. Our main findings are that experts have a tendency to double count and to react strongly to recent volatility in sales data. Also, experts who feel more confident give forecasts that differ most from model-based forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Boulaksil, Y. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2008. "Experts' Stated Behavior," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2008-001-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
  • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureri:10900
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nada R. Sanders & Karl B. Manrodt, 1994. "Forecasting Practices in US Corporations: Survey Results," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 24(2), pages 92-100, April.
    2. Klassen, Robert D. & Flores, Benito E., 2001. "Forecasting practices of Canadian firms: Survey results and comparisons," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 163-174, March.
    3. Franses, Philip Hans, 2008. "Merging models and experts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 31-33.
    4. Syntetos, Aris A. & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos & Boylan, John E. & Fildes, Robert & Goodwin, Paul, 2009. "The effects of integrating management judgement into intermittent demand forecasts," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 72-81, March.
    5. Philip Hans Franses, 2004. "Do We Think We Make Better Forecasts Than in the Past? A Survey of Academics," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 34(6), pages 466-468, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Boulaksil, Youssef, 2016. "Safety stock placement in supply chains with demand forecast updates," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 3(C), pages 27-31.
    2. repec:eee:ejores:v:274:y:2019:i:2:p:574-600 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:eee:jomega:v:86:y:2019:i:c:p:237-252 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    decision making; expert forecasts; model forecasts; stated behavior;

    JEL classification:

    • C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • M - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics
    • M31 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising - - - Marketing
    • M39 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising - - - Other

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