On the relative importance of linear model and human judge(s) in combined forecasting
When and to what extent should forecasts rely on linear model or human judgment? The judgmental forecasting literature suggests that aggregating model and judge using a simple 50:50 split tends to outperform the two inputs alone. However, current research disregards the important role that the structure of the task, judges’ level of expertise, and the number of individuals providing a forecasting judgment may play. Ninety-two music industry professionals and 88 postgraduate students were recruited in a field experiment to predict chart entry positions of pop music singles in the UK and Germany. The results of a lens model analysis show how task structure and domain-specific expertise moderate the relative importance of model and judge. The study also delineates an upper boundary to which aggregating multiple judgments in model-expert combinations adds predictive accuracy. It is suggested that ignoring the characteristics of task and/or judge may lead to suboptimal forecasting performance.
Volume (Year): 120 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/obhdp|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Goodwin, Paul, 2000. "Correct or combine? Mechanically integrating judgmental forecasts with statistical methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 261-275.
- Hoch, Stephen J, 1988. " Who Do We Know: Predicting the Interests and Opinions of the American Consumer," Journal of Consumer Research, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 315-324, December.
- de Menezes, Lilian M. & W. Bunn, Derek & Taylor, James W., 2000. "Review of guidelines for the use of combined forecasts," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 190-204, January.
- Ashton, Robert H., 1986. "Combining the judgments of experts: How many and which ones?," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 405-414, December.
- Robert C. Blattberg & Stephen J. Hoch, 1990. "Database Models and Managerial Intuition: 50% Model + 50% Manager," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(8), pages 887-899, August.
- M. J. Lawrence & R. H. Edmundson & M. J. O'Connor, 1986. "The Accuracy of Combining Judgemental and Statistical Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(12), pages 1521-1532, December.
- Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583.
- Briner, Rob B. & Rousseau, Denise M., 2011. "Evidence-Based I–O Psychology: Not There Yet," Industrial and Organizational Psychology, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(01), pages 3-22, March.
- Lawrence, Michael & Goodwin, Paul & O'Connor, Marcus & Onkal, Dilek, 2006. "Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 493-518.
- Makridakis, Spyros & Chatfield, Chris & Hibon, Michele & Lawrence, Michael & Mills, Terence & Ord, Keith & Simmons, LeRoy F., 1993. "The M2-competition: A real-time judgmentally based forecasting study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 5-22, April.
- Stephen J. Hoch & David A. Schkade, 1996. "A Psychological Approach to Decision Support Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 42(1), pages 51-64, January.
- Wood, Robert E., 1986. "Task complexity: Definition of the construct," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 60-82, February.
- Stewart, Thomas R. & Roebber, Paul J. & Bosart, Lance F., 1997. "The Importance of the Task in Analyzing Expert Judgment," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 205-219, March.
- Camerer, Colin & Weber, Martin, 1992. "Recent Developments in Modeling Preferences: Uncertainty and Ambiguity," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 325-370, October.
- Bunn, Derek W., 1985. "Statistical efficiency in the linear combination of forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 151-163.
- Deng, Pi-Sheng, 1996. "Using case-based reasoning approach to the support of ill-structured decisions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 93(3), pages 511-521, September.
- Alexander, John C, Jr, 1995. "Refining the Degree of Earnings Surprise: A Comparison of Statistical and Analysts' Forecasts," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 30(3), pages 469-506, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jobhdp:v:120:y:2013:i:1:p:24-36. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.