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Bubbles and Crashes in a Behavioural Finance Model

  • De Grauwe, Paul

    ()

    (University of Leuven)

  • Grimaldi, Marianna

    ()

    (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

Registered author(s):

    We develop a simple model of the exchange rate in which agents optimize their portfolio and use different forecasting rules. They check the profitability of these rules ex post and select the more profitable one. This model produces two kinds of equilibria, a fundamental and a bubble one. In a stochastic environment the model generates a complex dynamics in which bubbles and crashes occur at unpredictable moments. We contrast these "behavioural" bubbles with "rational" bubbles.

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    File URL: http://www.riksbank.se/upload/WorkingPapers/WP_164.pdf
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    Paper provided by Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) in its series Working Paper Series with number 164.

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    Length: 44 pages
    Date of creation: 01 May 2004
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0164
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden
    Phone: 08 - 787 00 00
    Fax: 08-21 05 31
    Web page: http://www.riksbank.com/
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    1. Lui, Yu-Hon & Mole, David, 1998. "The use of fundamental and technical analyses by foreign exchange dealers: Hong Kong evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 535-545, June.
    2. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1989. "Interpreting Tests of Forward Discount Bias Using Survey Data on Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Evans, Martin D. & Lyons, Richard K., 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance, Working Paper Series qt0dh1c16w, Research Program in Finance, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    4. Tirole, Jean, 1982. "On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1163-81, September.
    5. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-38, August.
    6. Wei, S.J. & Kim, J., 1999. "The Big Players in the Foreign Exchange Market: Do They Trade on Information or Noise?," Papers 5, Chicago - Graduate School of Business.
    7. Eric van Wincoop & Philippe Bacchetta, 2003. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," NBER Working Papers 9498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Thomas Lux & D. Sornette, 1999. "On Rational Bubbles and Fat Tails," Papers cond-mat/9910141, arXiv.org.
    9. Mordecai Kurz & Maurizio Motolese, . "Endogenous Uncertainty and Market Volatility," Working Papers 99005, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
    10. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, June.
    11. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
    12. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521460477 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
    14. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    15. Menkhoff, Lukas, 1997. "Examining the Use of Technical Currency Analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 307-18, October.
    16. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1979. "Speculative bubbles, crashes and rational expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 387-389.
    17. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521466004 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
    19. Brunnermeier, Markus K., 2001. "Asset Pricing under Asymmetric Information: Bubbles, Crashes, Technical Analysis, and Herding," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296980, March.
    20. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
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