IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/esr/wpaper/wp553.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

COSMO: A new COre Structural MOdel for Ireland

Author

Listed:
  • Bergin, Adele
  • Conroy, Niall
  • Garcia Rodriguez, Abian
  • Holland, Dawn
  • McInerney, Niall
  • Morgenroth, Edgar
  • Smith, Donal

Abstract

COSMO is a new structural econometric model of the Irish economy, with a theoretically founded structure and specification. It is designed to be used for medium-term economic projections and policy analysis. This paper outlines the key mechanisms in the model and explores the behaviour of the model by examining a range of shocks. One of the key contributions of COSMO is the incorporation of financial frictions in a small open economy model. The behavioural equations in COSMO are estimated econometrically, and the second contribution of the model relates to how all available information at both annual and quarterly frequency is exploited in estimation, applying a novel technique to convert dynamics estimated at one frequency into the other.

Suggested Citation

  • Bergin, Adele & Conroy, Niall & Garcia Rodriguez, Abian & Holland, Dawn & McInerney, Niall & Morgenroth, Edgar & Smith, Donal, 2017. "COSMO: A new COre Structural MOdel for Ireland," Papers WP553, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp553
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.esri.ie/pubs/WP553.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Yuliy Sannikov, 2014. "A Macroeconomic Model with a Financial Sector," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 379-421, February.
    2. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicolás S., 1945-, 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Working papers 1523-84., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    3. Stewart C. Myers & Nicholas S. Majluf, 1984. "Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have InformationThat Investors Do Not Have," NBER Working Papers 1396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Marco Marini, 2016. "Nowcasting Annual National Accounts with Quarterly Indicators; An Assessment of Widely Used Benchmarking Methods," IMF Working Papers 16/71, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicholas S., 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-221, June.
    6. Moller Andersen, Frits & Celov, Dmitry & Grinderslev, Dorte & Kazlauskas, Arvydas, 2005. "A macro-econometric model of Lithuania LITMOD," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 707-719, July.
    7. Iana Liadze & Professor E. Philip Davis, 2012. "Modelling and simulating the banking sectors of the US, Germany and the UK," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 396, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    8. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-248, April.
    9. Kasimati, Evangelia & Dawson, Peter, 2009. "Assessing the impact of the 2004 Olympic Games on the Greek economy: A small macroeconometric model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 139-146, January.
    10. Louis N. Christofides & Andrew J. Oswald, 1992. "Real Wage Determination and Rent-Sharing in Collective Bargaining Agreements," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(3), pages 985-1002.
    11. Mitchell, Peter R. & Sault, Joanne E. & Smith, Peter N. & Wallis, Kenneth F., 1998. "Comparing global economic models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-48, January.
    12. Robert Kelly & Eoin Brien & Rebecca Stuart, 2015. "A long-run survival analysis of corporate liquidations in Ireland," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 671-683, March.
    13. John V. Duca & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2011. "House Prices and Credit Constraints: Making Sense of the US Experience," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 533-551, May.
    14. Iacoviello, Matteo & Pavan, Marina, 2013. "Housing and debt over the life cycle and over the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 221-238.
    15. Daragh Clancy & Rossana Merola, 2016. "ÉIRE Mod: A DSGE Model for Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 47(1), pages 1-31.
    16. Xavier Freixas & Jean-Charles Rochet, 2008. "Microeconomics of Banking, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262062704, December.
    17. Bårdsen, Gunnar & den Reijer, Ard & Jonasson, Patrik & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2012. "MOSES: Model for studying the economy of Sweden," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2566-2582.
    18. James M. Poterba, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-Occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 99(4), pages 729-752.
    19. Reint Gropp & Florian Heider, 2010. "The Determinants of Bank Capital Structure," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(4), pages 587-622.
    20. Andreou, Elena & Ghysels, Eric & Kourtellos, Andros, 2010. "Regression models with mixed sampling frequencies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(2), pages 246-261, October.
    21. Gertjan W. Vlieghe, 2001. "Indicators of fragility in the UK corporate sector," Bank of England working papers 146, Bank of England.
    22. Duffy, David & McQuinn, Kieran & Morley, Ciara & Foley, Daniel, 2016. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2016," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20162, October.
    23. Barrell, Ray & Pain, Nigel, 1997. "Foreign Direct Investment, Technological Change, and Economic Growth within Europe," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1770-1786, November.
    24. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-375, November.
    25. Clancy, Daragh & Merola, Rossana, 2014. "The effect of macroprudential policy on endogenous credit cycles," Research Technical Papers 15/RT/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    26. Estrella, Arturo, 2004. "The cyclical behavior of optimal bank capital," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1469-1498, June.
    27. Ghysels, Eric, 2016. "Macroeconomics and the reality of mixed frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 294-314.
    28. Ruane, Frances & Siedschlag, Iulia & Murphy, Gavin, 2013. "Globalisation and Ireland's Export Performance," Papers WP451, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    29. Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & Znuderl, Nusa, 2013. "The HERMES-13 macroeconomic model of the Irish economy," Papers WP460, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    30. Andrea Gerali & Stefano Neri & Luca Sessa & Federico M. Signoretti, 2010. "Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 107-141, September.
    31. Ray Barrell & E Philip Davis & Tatiana Fic & Dawn Holland & Simon Kirby & Iana Liadze, 2009. "Optimal Regulation of Bank Capital and Liquidity: How to Calibrate New International Standards," Occasional Papers 38, Financial Services Authority.
    32. Bradley, John & Fitzgerald, John, 1988. "Industrial output and factor input determination in an econometric model of a small open economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1227-1241, July.
    33. Reamonn Lyndon & Yvonne McCarthy, 2013. "What Lies Beneath? Understanding Recent Trends in Irish Mortgage Arrears," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(1), pages 117-150.
    34. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jerome & Mestre, Ricardo, 2005. "An area-wide model for the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 39-59, January.
    35. Duffy, David & FitzGerald, John & McQuinn, Kieran & Morley, Ciara, 2014. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2014," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20142, October.
    36. Robert Kelly & Kieran McQuinn, 2014. "On the Hook for Impaired Bank Lending: Do Sovereign-Bank Interlinkages Affect the Net Cost of a Fiscal Stimulus?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(3), pages 95-128, September.
    37. Josef Baumgartner & Fritz Breuss & Serguei Kaniovski, 2004. "WIFO-Macromod. An Econometric Model of the Austrian Economy," WIFO Working Papers 241, WIFO.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. McQuinn, Kieran & Varthalitis, Petros, 2018. "How openness to trade rescued the Irish economy," Papers WP608, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    2. Bergin, Adele & Duffy, David & Foley, Daniel & Garcia Rodriguez, Abian & Lawless, Martina & Mc Inerney, Niall & McQuinn, Kieran, 2016. "Ireland’s Economic Outlook: Perspectives and Policy Challenges," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number EO1 edited by Bergin, Adele & Morgenroth, Edgar & McQuinn, Kieran, October.
    3. Slaymaker, Rachel & O'Toole, Conor & McQuinn, Kieran & Fahy, Mike, 2018. "Monetary policy normalisation and mortgage arrears in a recovering economy: The case of the Irish residential market," Papers WP613, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    4. Fahy, Mike & McQuinn, Kieran & O’Toole, Conor & Slaymaker, Rachel, 2018. "Exploring the implications of monetary policy normalisation for Irish mortgage arrears," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    5. de Bruin, Kelly & Yakut, Aykut Mert, 2019. "Technical documentation of I3E model," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number SUSTAT74, December.
    6. Daragh Clancy & Rossana Merola, 2016. "ÉIRE Mod: A DSGE Model for Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 47(1), pages 1-31.
    7. McQuinn, Kieran & O’Toole, Conor & Allen-Coghlan, Matthew & Economides, Philip, 2019. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Spring 2019," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC, October.
    8. Bergin, Adele & Economides, Philip & Garcia-Rodriguez, Abian & Murphy, Gavin, 2019. "Ireland and Brexit: modelling the impact of deal and no-deal scenarios," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    9. Duffy, David & Foley, Daniel & Mc Inerney, Niall & McQuinn, Kieran, 2016. "Demographic Change, Long-Run Housing Demand and the Related Challenges for the Irish Banking Sector," Book Chapters, in: Ireland’s Economic Outlook: Perspectives and Policy Challenges, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    10. Varthalitis, Petros, 2019. "FIR-GEM: A SOE-DSGE Model for fiscal policy analysis in Ireland," Papers WP620, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    11. Bergin, Adele & Garcia Rodriguez, Abian & Mc Inerney, Niall & Morgenroth, Edgar, 2016. "Baseline: Methodology, Assumptions and Projections," Book Chapters, in: Ireland’s Economic Outlook: Perspectives and Policy Challenges, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    12. de Bruin, Kelly & Yakut, Aykut Mert, 2019. "Technical Documentation of I3E Model, Version 2," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number SUSTAT77, December.
    13. De Bruin, Kelly & Yakut, Mert Aykut, 2020. "Technical documentation of I3E model, Version 3," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number SUSTAT91, December.
    14. De Bruin, Kelly C & Yakut, Aykut Mert, 2019. "The effects of an incremental increase in the Irish carbon tax towards 2030," Papers WP619, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    15. Lawless, Martina & Morgenroth, Edgar, 2016. "Opportunities and Risks for Foreign Direct Investment," Book Chapters, in: Ireland’s Economic Outlook: Perspectives and Policy Challenges, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp553. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sarah Burns). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/esriiie.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.