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Indicators of fragility in the UK corporate sector

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  • Gertjan W. Vlieghe

Abstract

The determinants of the aggregate corporate liquidation rate in the United Kingdom are estimated from a sample of quarterly data using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach which allows for non-stationarity of the variables. The paper investigates what the appropriate measures of indebtedness are, and examines whether the unprecedented spike in the corporate liquidation rate in the United Kingdom in 1992 caused a breakdown in the relationship between the variables. The debt-to-GDP ratio, the real interest rate, deviations of GDP from trend and real wages are found to be long-run determinants of the liquidation rate. The birth rate of new companies, an index of property prices and nominal interest rates have significant short-term effects. The estimated equation is robust to changes in the sample period. The rapidly increasing level of indebtedness in the late 1980s was the main determinant of the subsequent increase in the liquidation rate. The decrease in the liquidation rate after 1992 was primarily due to lower real interest rates, lower real wages and the cyclical recovery of GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Gertjan W. Vlieghe, 2001. "Indicators of fragility in the UK corporate sector," Bank of England working papers 146, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:146
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    Cited by:

    1. Glenn Hoggarth & Steffen Sorensen & Lea Zicchino, 2005. "Stress tests of UK banks using a VAR approach," Bank of England working papers 282, Bank of England.
    2. Petr Jakubík, 2007. "Credit Risk and the Finnish Economy," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 254-285, November.
    3. David Aikman & Piergiorgio Alessandri & Bruno Eklund & Prasanna Gai & Sujit Kapadia & Elizabeth Martin & Nada Mora & Gabriel Sterne & Matthew Willison, 2011. "Funding Liquidity Risk in a Quantitative Model of Systemic Stability," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.), Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 12, pages 371-410 Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Fabling, Richard & Grimes, Arthur, 2005. "Insolvency and economic development: Regional variation and adjustment," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 339-359.
    5. John Whitley & Richard Windram, 2003. "A quantitative framework for commercial property and its relationship to the analysis of the financial stability of the corporate sector," Bank of England working papers 207, Bank of England.
    6. Robert Kelly & Eoin Brien & Rebecca Stuart, 2015. "A long-run survival analysis of corporate liquidations in Ireland," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 671-683, March.
    7. Bergin, Adele & Conroy, Niall & Garcia Rodriguez, Abian & Holland, Dawn & McInerney, Niall & Morgenroth, Edgar & Smith, Donal, 2017. "COSMO: A new COre Structural MOdel for Ireland," Papers WP553, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    8. Dietske Simons & Ferdinand Rolwes, 2009. "Macroeconomic efault Modeling and Stress Testing," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 177-204, September.
    9. Salnikov, V. & Mogilat, A. & Maslov, I., 2012. "Stress Testing for Russian Real Sector: First Approach," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 46-70.
    10. Hunter, John & Isachenkova, Natalia, 2006. "Aggregate economy risk and company failure: An examination of UK quoted firms in the early 1990s," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 911-919, November.
    11. Virolainen, Kimmo, 2003. "Macro stress testing with a macroeconomic credit risk model for Finland," Research Discussion Papers 18/2004, Bank of Finland.
    12. Salman, A. Khalik & von Friedrichs, Yvonne & Shukur, Ghazi, 2009. "Macroeconomic Factors and Swedish Small and Medium-Sized Manufacturing Firm Failure," Working Paper Series in Economics and Institutions of Innovation 185, Royal Institute of Technology, CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies.
    13. Harada, Nobuyuki & Kageyama, Noriyuki, 2011. "Bankruptcy dynamics in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 119-128, March.
    14. Nico Dewaelheyns & Cynthia Hulle, 2008. "Legal reform and aggregate small and micro business bankruptcy rates: evidence from the 1997 Belgian bankruptcy code," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 409-424, December.
    15. Sorge, Marco & Virolainen, Kimmo, 2006. "A comparative analysis of macro stress-testing methodologies with application to Finland," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 113-151, June.

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