Macroeconomic efault Modeling and Stress Testing
This paper applies a macroeconomic-based model for estimating probabilities of default. The first part of the paper focuses on the relation between macroeconomic variables and the default behavior of Dutch firms. A convincing relationship with GDP growth and oil price and, to a lesser extent, the interest and exchange rate exists. The second part of the paper assesses the default behavior based on a stress scenario of two consecutive quarters of zero GDP growth as required by the Basel II framework. It can be concluded that a stress-test scenario covering two quarters of zero GDP growth does not influence the default rate significantly and thus does not seem to be very severe.
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- Hamerle, Alfred & Liebig, Thilo & Scheule, Harald, 2004. "Forecasting Credit Portfolio Risk," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2004,01, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
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Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
03-062/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 09 Jan 2003.
- Gertjan W. Vlieghe, 2001. "Indicators of fragility in the UK corporate sector," Bank of England working papers 146, Bank of England.
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