IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdi/opques/qef_135_12.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Banks� balance sheets and the macroeconomy in the Bank of Italy Quarterly Model

Author

Listed:
  • Claudia Miani

    (Banca d'Italia)

  • Giulio Nicoletti

    (Banca d'Italia)

  • Alessandro Notarpietro

    (Banca d'Italia)

  • Massimiliano Pisani

    (Banca d'Italia)

Abstract

We investigate the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and banks' balance sheets by referring to a modified version of the Bank of Italy Quarterly Model (BIQM), regularly used for forecasting and policy analysis. In particular, we examine how regulatory bank capital and private sector default probabilities affect interest rates on loans and, ultimately, economic activity. To this end, we build an enriched version of the model to include a number of banking variables. The changes introduced in the model result in an amplification of the responses of macroeconomic variables to monetary policy and world demand shocks, although, in normal times, the effect is not large.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudia Miani & Giulio Nicoletti & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2012. "Banks� balance sheets and the macroeconomy in the Bank of Italy Quarterly Model," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 135, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_135_12
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2012-0135/QEF_135.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patrick Bolton & Xavier Freixas, 2006. "Corporate Finance and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 829-870.
    2. Alberto Locarno, 2011. "The macroeconomic impact of Basel III on the Italian economy," Rivista Bancaria - Minerva Bancaria, Istituto di Cultura Bancaria Francesco Parrillo, issue 5-6, november.
    3. Fabio Busetti & Alberto Locarno & Libero Monteforte, 2005. "The Bank of Italy's quarterly model," Chapters, in: Gabriel Fagan & Julian Morgan (ed.), Econometric Models of the Euro-area Central Banks, chapter 12, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Jacobson, Tor & Linde, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2005. "Exploring interactions between real activity and the financial stance," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 308-341, April.
    5. Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2008. "How do banks set interest rates?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 792-819, July.
    6. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-276, June.
    7. Cornett, Marcia Millon & Tehranian, Hassan, 1994. "An examination of voluntary versus involuntary security issuances by commercial banks *1: The impact of capital regulations on common stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 99-122, February.
    8. Vasco Cúrdia & Michael Woodford, 2010. "Credit Spreads and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 3-35, September.
    9. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicholas S., 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-221, June.
    10. Luca Casolaro & Leonardo Gambacorta, 2004. "Un modello dei conti economici per il sistema bancario italiano," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 519, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Lindé, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2002. "Capital Charges under Basel II: Corporate Credit Risk Modelling and the Macro Economy," Working Paper Series 142, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    12. Marcucci, Juri & Quagliariello, Mario, 2008. "Is bank portfolio riskiness procyclical: Evidence from Italy using a vector autoregression," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 46-63, February.
    13. Jeremy C. Stein, 1998. "An Adverse-Selection Model of Bank Asset and Liability Management with Implications for the Transmission of Monetary Policy," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 29(3), pages 466-486, Autumn.
    14. Skander J. van den Heuvel, 2002. "Does bank capital matter for monetary transmission?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(May), pages 259-265.
    15. Albertazzi, Ugo & Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2009. "Bank profitability and the business cycle," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 393-409, December.
    16. Calomiris, Charles W & Hubbard, R Glenn, 1995. "Internal Finance and Investment: Evidence from the Undistributed Profits Tax of 1936-37," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(4), pages 443-482, October.
    17. Stewart C. Myers & Nicholas S. Majluf, 1984. "Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have InformationThat Investors Do Not Have," NBER Working Papers 1396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Claudia Miani & Stefano Siviero, 2010. "A non-parametric model-based approach to uncertainty and risk analysis of macroeconomic forecast," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 758, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    19. Petr Jakubík, 2006. "Does Credit Risk Vary with Economic Cycles? The Case of Finland," Working Papers IES 2006/11, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2006.
    20. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, 2004. "Does bank capital affect lending behavior?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 436-457, October.
    21. Hamerle, Alfred & Liebig, Thilo & Scheule, Harald, 2004. "Forecasting Credit Portfolio Risk," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2004,01, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    22. Gabriel Fagan & Julian Morgan (ed.), 2005. "Econometric Models of the Euro-area Central Banks," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3918.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anthony Brassil & Mike Major & Peter Rickards, 2022. "MARTIN Gets a Bank Account: Adding a Banking Sector to the RBA's Macroeconometric Model," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2022-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Skufi, Lorena, 2020. "Financial sector and macroeconomics links in MEAM," MPRA Paper 120481, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2020.
    2. Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2008. "How do banks set interest rates?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 792-819, July.
    3. Albertazzi, Ugo & Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2009. "Bank profitability and the business cycle," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 393-409, December.
    4. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Shin, Hyun Song, 2018. "Why bank capital matters for monetary policy," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 35(PB), pages 17-29.
    5. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, 2004. "Does bank capital affect lending behavior?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 436-457, October.
    6. Leonardo Gambacorta & Paolo Emilio Mistrulli, 2003. "Bank Capital and Lending Behaviour: Empirical Evidence for Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 486, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Jorge, José, 2009. "Why do bank loans react with a delay to shifts in interest rates? A bank capital explanation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 799-806, September.
    8. Nada Mora & Andrew Logan, 2012. "Shocks to bank capital: evidence from UK banks at home and away," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(9), pages 1103-1119, March.
    9. Beccalli, Elena & Frantz, Pascal & Lenoci, Francesca, 2018. "Hidden effects of bank recapitalizations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 297-314.
    10. Paul E. Orzechowski, 2019. "The bank capital channel and bank profits," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 372-388, July.
    11. Skander Van den Heuvel, 2006. "The Bank Capital Channel of Monetary Policy," 2006 Meeting Papers 512, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Borio, Claudio & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 236-251.
    13. Beccalli, Elena & Frantz, Pascal & Lenoci, Francesca, 2018. "Hidden effects of bank recapitalizations," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 89252, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Guillaume Arnould & Giuseppe Avignone & Cosimo Pancaro & Dawid Żochowski, 2022. "Bank funding costs and solvency," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(10), pages 931-963, July.
    15. Beutler, Toni & Bichsel, Robert & Bruhin, Adrian & Danton, Jayson, 2020. "The impact of interest rate risk on bank lending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    16. Sree Rama Murthy Y, 2013. "Logit Regression Approach to Rating Banks Using Financial Ratios: A Study of Gulf Cooperation Council Banks," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 4(4), pages 107-117, October.
    17. Cappelletti, Giuseppe & Reghezza, Alessio & Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza & Spaggiari, Martina, 2020. "Compositional effects of O-SII capital buffers and the role of monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2440, European Central Bank.
    18. Piotr Dybka & Bartosz Olesiński & Piotr Pękała & Andrzej Torój, 2017. "To SVAR or to SVEC? On the transmission of capital buffer shocks to the real economy," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 48(2), pages 119-148.
    19. Bruno Coric, 2011. "The financial accelerator effect: concept and challenges," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 35(2), pages 171-196.
    20. Aiyar, Shekhar & Calomiris , Charles W & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2012. "Does macropru leak? Evidence from a UK policy experiment," Bank of England working papers 445, Bank of England.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank regulatory capital; loan interest rates; Italian economy.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_135_12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.