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The Impact of Interest Rate Risk on Bank Lending

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Abstract

In this paper, we empirically analyze the transmission of realized interest rate risk – the gain or loss in bank economic capital due to movements in interest rates – to bank lending. We exploit a unique panel data set that contains supervisory information on the repricing maturity profiles of Swiss banks and provides us with an individual measure of interest rate risk exposure net of hedging. Our analysis yields three main results. First, our estimates indicate that a year after a permanent 1 percentage point upward shock in nominal interest rates, the average bank of 2013Q3 would ceteris paribus reduce its cumulative loan growth by approximately 170 basis points. An estimated 28% of this reduction would be the result of realized interest rate risk exposure weakening the bank’s economic capital. Second, due to the banks’ heterogeneity in interest rate risk exposure, the effect of the shock would differ across institutions and could be redistributive across regions. Finally, bank lending seems to be mainly driven by capital rather than liquidity, suggesting that a higher capitalized banking system can better shield its creditors from shocks in interest rates.

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  • Toni Beutler & Robert Bichsel & Adrian Bruhin & Jayson Danton, 2015. "The Impact of Interest Rate Risk on Bank Lending," Working Papers 15.05, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  • Handle: RePEc:szg:worpap:1505
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    Cited by:

    1. Simone Auer & Maja Ganarin & Pascal Towbin, 2017. "International Banking and Cross-Border Effects of Regulation: Lessons from Switzerland," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(2), pages 65-93, March.
    2. Toni Beutler & Matthias Gubler & Simona Hauri & Sylvia Kaufmann, 2020. "Bank lending in Switzerland: Capturing cross-sectional heterogeneity and asymmetry over time," Working Papers 2020-12, Swiss National Bank.
    3. Oguzhan Cepni & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Ahmet Sensoy, 2020. "Interest Rate Uncertainty and the Predictability of Bank Revenues," Working Papers 202040, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Christoph Basten & Benjamin Guin & Cathérine Tahmee Koch, 2017. "How Do Banks and Households Manage Interest Rate Risk? Evidence from the Swiss Mortgage Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 6649, CESifo.
    5. Stefanie Behncke, 2020. "Effects of macroprudential policies on bank lending and credit risks," Working Papers 2020-06, Swiss National Bank.
    6. Mariya Gubareva, 2018. "Historical Interest Rate Sensitivity of Emerging Market Sovereign Debt: Evidence of Regime Dependent Behavior," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 19(2), pages 405-442, November.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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