Un modello dei conti economici per il sistema bancario italiano
This paper analyzes the linkages between banksï¿½ profitability and the main real and financial indicators. The results, derived by means of a reduced-form model for the period 1984-2002, highlight a strict relation between all income and cost components and the evolution of the economic cycle. Net interest income shows a high correlation with nominal GDP and the interest rate term structure; income from services and trading are also influenced by the trend and volatility of stock and financial markets. Operating expenses depend on wage dynamics and changes in a bankï¿½s organizational structure. Simulations performed for the period 2001-02 show a good predictive power of the model.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2004|
|Date of revision:|
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Web page: http://www.bancaditalia.it
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- Marchetti, D.J., 1999. "Markup and the Business Cycle: Evidence from Italian Manufacturing Branches," Papers 362, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
- Atkinson, A.B. & Brandolini, A., 2000.
"Promise and Pitfalls in the Use of 'Secondary' Data -Sets: Income Inequality in OECD Countries,"
379, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
- Anthony B. Atkinson & Andrea Brandolini, 2000. "Promise and Pitfalls in the Use of 'Secondary' Data-Sets: Income Inequality in OECD Countries," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 379, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Domenica J. Marchetti, 1999. "Markup and the Business Cycle: Evidence from Italian Manufacturing Branches," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 362, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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