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Pitfalls of monetary policy under incomplete information: imprecise indicators and real indeterminacy

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  • Eugenio Gaiotti

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

Can a strategy of targeting macro projections be the only guide for monetary policy actions, or could it cause macroeconomic instability in the face of imprecise information? The paper examines how the precision of the indicators affects determinacy in a model with partial information and an optimizing central bank. When the information on endogenous variables is noisy, the central bank acts too timidly and sunspots arise; relying on information on exogenous variables such as potential output can also induce too much caution in response to inflation. Simple rules which impose a large reaction to nominal variables, irrespective of their information content, may be needed to supply an anchor for prices. Appointing a “conservative” central banker may also be appropriate in presence of large uncertainty, irrespective of time inconsistency considerations, as he responds less timidly to signs of inflation or deflation when their interpretation is difficult.

Suggested Citation

  • Eugenio Gaiotti, 2004. "Pitfalls of monetary policy under incomplete information: imprecise indicators and real indeterminacy," Macroeconomics 0404017, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Apr 2004.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0404017
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 36
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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