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Comparing forecast-based and backward-looking Taylor rules: a "global" analysis

Listed author(s):
  • Stefano Eusepi

This paper examines the performance of forecast-based nonlinear Taylor rules in a class of simple microfunded models. The paper shows that even if the policy rule leads to a locally determinate (and stable) inflation target, there exist other learnable "global" equilibria such as cycles and sunspots. Moreover, under learning dynamics, the economy can fall into a liquidity trap. By contrast, more backward-looking and "active" Taylor rules guarantee that the unique learnable equilibrium is the inflation target. This result is robust to different specifications of the role of money, price stickiness, and the trading environment.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 198.

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Date of creation: 2005
Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:198
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  1. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Ramon Marimon, 2002. "Stable Sunspot Equilibira in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2001-5, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 15 Nov 2005.
  2. Honkapohja, S. & Mitra, K., 2001. "Are Non-Fundamental Equilibria Learnable in Models of Monetary Policy?," University of Helsinki, Department of Economics 501, Department of Economics.
  3. Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John Williams, 2000. "The Performance Of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 203, Society for Computational Economics.
  4. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September.
  5. Ben S. Bernanke & Michael Woodford, 1997. "Inflation forecasts and monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 653-686.
  6. GRANDMONT, Jean-Michel & PINTUS, Patrick & de VILDER, Robin, 1997. "Capital-labor substitution and competitive nonlinear endogenous business cycles," CORE Discussion Papers 1997087, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  7. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2001. "Learning and the central bank," Working Paper 0117, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  8. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 1999. "Monetary Policy and Multiple Equilibria," CEPR Discussion Papers 2316, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Woodford, Michael, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(0), pages 1-35, Supplemen.
  10. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Chaotic Interest Rate Rules," Departmental Working Papers 200109, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  11. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2000. "Avoiding Liquidity Traps," Departmental Working Papers 199925, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  12. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
  13. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1995. "Local Convergence of Recursive Learning to Steady States and Cycles in Stochastic Nonlinear Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(1), pages 195-206, January.
  14. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2002. "Existence of Adaptively Stable Sunspot Equilibria near an Indeterminate Steady State," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2002-9, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 06 Apr 2002.
  15. Christiano, Lawrence J. & G. Harrison, Sharon, 1999. "Chaos, sunspots and automatic stabilizers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 3-31, August.
  16. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1986. "Stabilizing competitive business cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 57-76, October.
  17. Nicoletta Batini & Edward Nelson, 1999. "Optimal Horizons for Inflation Targeting," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1052, Society for Computational Economics.
  18. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 2001. "Timing and real indeterminacy in monetary models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 285-298, April.
  19. BLOISE, Gaetano, "undated". "A geometric approach to sunspot equilibria," CORE Discussion Papers RP 1577, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  20. Lawrence J. Christiano & Massimo Rostagno, 2001. "Money Growth Monitoring and the Taylor Rule," NBER Working Papers 8539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. repec:cup:macdyn:v:2:y:1998:i:1:p:22-48 is not listed on IDEAS
  22. Michael Woodford, 2000. "Pitfalls of Forward-Looking Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 100-104, May.
  23. James B. Bullard & John Duffy, 1995. "On learning and the stability of cycles," Working Papers 1995-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  24. Jean-Michel Grandmont, 1997. "Expectations Formation and Stability of Large Socioeconomic Systems," Working Papers 97-27, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  25. Costas Azariadis & Roger Guesnerie, 1986. "Sunspots and Cycles," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(5), pages 725-737.
  26. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2000. "Forward-looking versus backward-looking Taylor rules," Working Paper 0009, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  27. Bullard, James & Duffy, John, 1998. "Learning And The Stability Of Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(01), pages 22-48, March.
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