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Comparing forecast-based and backward-looking Taylor rules: a "global" analysis

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  • Stefano Eusepi

Abstract

This paper examines the performance of forecast-based nonlinear Taylor rules in a class of simple microfunded models. The paper shows that even if the policy rule leads to a locally determinate (and stable) inflation target, there exist other learnable "global" equilibria such as cycles and sunspots. Moreover, under learning dynamics, the economy can fall into a liquidity trap. By contrast, more backward-looking and "active" Taylor rules guarantee that the unique learnable equilibrium is the inflation target. This result is robust to different specifications of the role of money, price stickiness, and the trading environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Eusepi, 2005. "Comparing forecast-based and backward-looking Taylor rules: a "global" analysis," Staff Reports 198, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:198
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 2004. "Learning and the central bank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 327-338, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eusepi, Stefano, 2007. "Learnability and monetary policy: A global perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1115-1131, May.
    2. Airaudo, Marco & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2012. "Interest rate rules, endogenous cycles, and chaotic dynamics in open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1566-1584.
    3. d'Albis, Hippolyte & Augeraud-Véron, Emmanuelle & Hupkes, Hermen Jan, 2014. "Bounded interest rate feedback rules in continuous-time," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 227-236.
    4. William Barnett & Evgeniya Duzhak, 2010. "Empirical assessment of bifurcation regions within New Keynesian models," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 45(1), pages 99-128, October.
    5. Lengnick, Matthias & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2016. "Optimal monetary policy in a new Keynesian model with animal spirits and financial markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 148-165.
    6. Hippolyte D'Albis & Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron & Hermen Jan Hupkes, 2012. "Backward- versus Forward-Looking Feedback Interest Rate Rules," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00721289, HAL.

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    Keywords

    Econometric models ; Monetary policy ; Uncertainty ; Business cycles ; Banks and banking; Central;

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