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Comparing forecast-based and backward-looking Taylor rules: a "global" analysis

  • Stefano Eusepi

This paper examines the performance of forecast-based nonlinear Taylor rules in a class of simple microfunded models. The paper shows that even if the policy rule leads to a locally determinate (and stable) inflation target, there exist other learnable "global" equilibria such as cycles and sunspots. Moreover, under learning dynamics, the economy can fall into a liquidity trap. By contrast, more backward-looking and "active" Taylor rules guarantee that the unique learnable equilibrium is the inflation target. This result is robust to different specifications of the role of money, price stickiness, and the trading environment.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 198.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:198
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  1. Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and some Theory," Working Papers 98-01, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  2. Batini, Nicoletta & Nelson, Edward, 2000. "Optimal Horizons for Inflation Targeting," Working Paper Series 103, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  3. Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 2001. "The performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules under model uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2001. "Learning and the central bank," Working Paper 0117, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  5. Lawrence J. Christiano & Sharon G. Harrison, 1996. "Chaos, sunspots, and automatic stabilizers," Staff Report 214, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  6. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2003. "Existence of adaptively stable sunspot equilibria near an indeterminate steady state," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 125-134, July.
  7. Ben S. Bernanke & Michael Woodford, 1997. "Inflation forecasts and monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 653-686.
  8. James Bullard & John Duffy, 1995. "On learning and the stability of cycles," Working Papers 1995-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  9. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Chaotic Interest Rate Rules," Departmental Working Papers 200109, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  10. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2001. "Are Non-Fundamental Equilibria Learnable in Models of Monetary Policy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2846, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Woodford, Michael, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy inertia," CFS Working Paper Series 1999/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  12. Jean-Michel Grandmont, 1998. "Expectations Formation and Stability of Large Socioeconomic Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(4), pages 741-782, July.
  13. Evans George W & Honkapohja Seppo M.S. & Marimon Ramon, 2007. "Stable Sunspot Equilibria in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-38, January.
  14. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Jess Benhabib & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Multiple Equilibria," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 167-186, March.
  15. Bloise, Gaetano, 2001. "A Geometric Approach to Sunspot Equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 519-539, December.
  16. GRANDMONT, Jean-Michel & PINTUS, Patrick & de VILDER, Robin, 1997. "Capital-labor substitution and competitive nonlinear endogenous business cycles," CORE Discussion Papers 1997087, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  17. Michael Woodford, 2000. "Pitfalls of Forward-Looking Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 100-104, May.
  18. Lawrence J. Christiano & Massimo Rostagno, 2001. "Money Growth Monitoring and the Taylor Rule," NBER Working Papers 8539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Bullard, James & Duffy, John, 1998. "Learning And The Stability Of Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(01), pages 22-48, March.
  20. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September.
  21. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1995. "Local Convergence of Recursive Learning to Steady States and Cycles in Stochastic Nonlinear Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(1), pages 195-206, January.
  22. Grandmont Jean-michel, 1985. "Stabilizing competitive business cycles," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8518, CEPREMAP.
  23. Azariadis, Costas & Guesnerie, Roger, 1986. "Sunspots and Cycles," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(5), pages 725-37, October.
  24. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 2001. "Timing and real indeterminacy in monetary models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 285-298, April.
  25. repec:cup:macdyn:v:2:y:1998:i:1:p:22-48 is not listed on IDEAS
  26. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2001. "Avoiding Liquidity Traps," CEPR Discussion Papers 2948, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  27. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2000. "Forward-looking versus backward-looking Taylor rules," Working Paper 0009, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
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