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Backward- versus Forward-Looking Feedback Interest Rate Rules

This paper proposes conditions for the existence and uniqueness of solutions to systems of differential equations with delays or advances in which some variables are non-predetermined. An application to the issue of optimal interest rate policy is then develop in a flexible-price model where money enters the utility function. Central banks have the choice between a rule that depends on past inflation rates or one that depends on predicted interest rates. When inflation rates are selected over a bounded time interval, the problem is characterized by a system of delay or advanced differential equations. We then prove that if the central bank's forecast horizon is not too long, an active and forward-looking monetary policy is not too destabilizing : the equilibrium trajectory is unique and monotonic.

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File URL: ftp://mse.univ-paris1.fr/pub/mse/CES2012/12051.pdf
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Paper provided by Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne in its series Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne with number 12051.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:12051
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  1. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-54, April.
  2. Bill Dupor, 2000. "Investment and Interest Rate Policy," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0007, Econometric Society.
  3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory," Economics Working Papers 350, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 1999.
  4. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2003. "Backward-looking interest-rate rules, interest-rate smoothing, and macroeconomic instability," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1379-1423.
  5. Woodford, M., 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia.," Papers 666, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  6. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 1998. "Monetary policy and multiple equilibria," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Stefano Eusepi, 2005. "Comparing forecast-based and backward-looking Taylor rules: a "global" analysis," Staff Reports 198, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  8. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2001. "Avoiding Liquidity Traps," CEPR Discussion Papers 2948, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Mauro Bambi, 2006. "Endogenous growth and time to build: the AK case," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 77, Society for Computational Economics.
  10. Raouf Boucekkine & David de la Croix & Omar Licandro, . "Modelling vintage structures with DDEs: Principles and applications," Working Papers 2004-07, FEDEA.
  11. Boucekkine, Raouf & Licandro, Omar & Puch, Luis A. & del Rio, Fernando, 1999. "Vintage Capital and the Dynamics of the AK Model," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2000009, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  12. Benhabib, Jess, 2004. "Interest Rate Policy in Continuous Time with Discrete Delays," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 1-15, February.
  13. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 2005. "Investment and interest rate policy: a discrete time analysis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 4-20, July.
  14. d’Albis, Hippolyte & Augeraud-Veron, Emmanuelle & Venditti, Alain, 2012. "Business cycle fluctuations and learning-by-doing externalities in a one-sector model," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 295-308.
  15. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
  16. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
  17. Gray, Malcolm R & Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1979. "Expectational Consistency, Informational Lags, and the Formulation of Expectations in Continuous Time Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(6), pages 1457-74, November.
  18. Hippolyte D'Albis & Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron & Alain Venditti, 2009. "Business cycle fluctuations and learning-by-doing externalities in a one-sector model," Working Papers halshs-00432267, HAL.
  19. Hippolyte d'Albis & Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron & Hermen Jan Hupkes, 2012. "Discontinuous Initial Value Problems for Functional Differential-Algebraic Equations of Mixed Type," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 12043, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
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