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Backward- versus Forward-Looking Feedback Interest Rate Rules

  • Hippolyte D'Albis

    ()

    (EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne)

  • Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron

    ()

    (MIA - Mathématiques, Image et Applications - Université de La Rochelle : EA3165)

  • Hermen Jan Hupkes

    ()

    (University of Missouri - Columbia - Mathematics Department)

This paper proposes conditions for the existence and uniqueness of solutions to systems of differential equations with delays or advances in which some variables are non-predetermined. An application to the issue of optimal interest rate policy is then develop in a flexible-price model where money enters the utility function. Central banks have the choice between a rule that depends on past inflation rates or one that depends on predicted interest rates. When inflation rates are selected over a bounded time interval, the problem is characterized by a system of delay or advanced differential equations. We then prove that if the central bank's forecast horizon is not too long, an active and forward-looking monetary policy is not too destabilizing : the equilibrium trajectory is unique and monotonic.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number halshs-00721289.

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Date of creation: Jun 2012
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Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00721289
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  1. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2001. "Avoiding Liquidity Traps," CEPR Discussion Papers 2948, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Hippolyte d'Albis & Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron & Hermen Jan Hupkes, 2012. "Discontinuous Initial Value Problems for Functional Differential-Algebraic Equations of Mixed Type," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 12043, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  3. Benhabib, Jess, 2004. "Interest Rate Policy in Continuous Time with Discrete Delays," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 1-15, February.
  4. Raouf BOUCEKKINE & Omar LICANDRO & Luis A. PUCH & Fernando DEL RIO, 2002. "Vintage Capital And the Dynamics of the AK Model," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/07, European University Institute.
  5. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," NBER Working Papers 7261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 1998. "Monetary policy and multiple equilibria," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. BOUCEKKINE, Raouf & DE LA CROIX, David & LICANDRO, Omar, . "Modelling vintage structures with DDEs: principles and applications," CORE Discussion Papers RP -1758, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  8. d'Albis, Hippolyte & Augeraud-Véron, Emmanuelle & Venditti, Alain, 2010. "Business cycle fluctuations and learning-by-doing externalities in a one-sector model," LERNA Working Papers 10.13.319, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
  9. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy rules based on real-time data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2001. "Timing and real indeterminacy in monetary models," Working Paper 9910R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  11. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2003. "Backward-looking interest-rate rules, interest-rate smoothing, and macroeconomic instability," Working Papers 03-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  12. Dupor, Bill, 2001. "Investment and Interest Rate Policy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 85-113, May.
  13. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2003. "Investment and interest rate policy: a discrete time analysis," Working Paper 0320, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  14. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Mauro Bambi, 2006. "Endogenous growth and time to build: the AK case," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 77, Society for Computational Economics.
  16. Stefano Eusepi, 2005. "Comparing forecast-based and backward-looking Taylor rules: a "global" analysis," Staff Reports 198, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  17. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
  18. Gray, Malcolm R & Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1979. "Expectational Consistency, Informational Lags, and the Formulation of Expectations in Continuous Time Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(6), pages 1457-74, November.
  19. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-54, April.
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