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Backward- versus Forward-Looking Feedback Interest Rate Rules

  • Hippolyte D'Albis

    ()

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics)

  • Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron

    ()

    (MIA - Mathématiques, Image et Applications - Université de La Rochelle)

  • Hermen Jan Hupkes

    ()

    (University of Missouri - Columbia - Mathematics Department)

This paper proposes conditions for the existence and uniqueness of solutions to systems of differential equations with delays or advances in which some variables are non-predetermined. An application to the issue of optimal interest rate policy is then develop in a flexible-price model where money enters the utility function. Central banks have the choice between a rule that depends on past inflation rates or one that depends on predicted interest rates. When inflation rates are selected over a bounded time interval, the problem is characterized by a system of delay or advanced differential equations. We then prove that if the central bank's forecast horizon is not too long, an active and forward-looking monetary policy is not too destabilizing : the equilibrium trajectory is unique and monotonic.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number halshs-00721289.

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Date of creation: Jun 2012
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Publication status: Published in Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 2012.51 - ISSN : 1955-611X. 2012
Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00721289
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00721289
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  13. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-54, April.
  14. d'Albis, Hippolyte & Augeraud-Véron, Emmanuelle & Venditti, Alain, 2010. "Business cycle fluctuations and learning-by-doing externalities in a one-sector model," LERNA Working Papers 10.13.319, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
  15. Hippolyte D'Albis & Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron & Hermen Jan Hupkes, 2012. "Discontinuous initial value problems for functional differential-algebraic equations of mixed type," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00759204, HAL.
  16. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 2001. "Timing and real indeterminacy in monetary models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 285-298, April.
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