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Backward- versus Forward-Looking Feedback Interest Rate Rules

  • Hippolyte D'Albis

    ()

    (EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne)

  • Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron

    ()

    (MIA - Mathématiques, Image et Applications - Université de La Rochelle : EA3165)

  • Hermen Jan Hupkes

    ()

    (University of Missouri - Columbia - Mathematics Department)

This paper proposes conditions for the existence and uniqueness of solutions to systems of differential equations with delays or advances in which some variables are non-predetermined. An application to the issue of optimal interest rate policy is then develop in a flexible-price model where money enters the utility function. Central banks have the choice between a rule that depends on past inflation rates or one that depends on predicted interest rates. When inflation rates are selected over a bounded time interval, the problem is characterized by a system of delay or advanced differential equations. We then prove that if the central bank's forecast horizon is not too long, an active and forward-looking monetary policy is not too destabilizing : the equilibrium trajectory is unique and monotonic.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number halshs-00721289.

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Date of creation: Jun 2012
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Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00721289
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00721289
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  1. Raouf Boucekkine & David de la Croix & Omar Licandro, . "Modelling vintage structures with DDEs: Principles and applications," Working Papers 2004-07, FEDEA.
  2. Jess Behabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2003. "Backward-Looking Interest-Rate Rules, Interest-Rate Smoothing, and Macroeconomic Instability," NBER Working Papers 9558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Hippolyte D'Albis & Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron & Alain Venditti, 2012. "Business cycle fluctuations and learning-by-doing externalities in a one-sector model," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00717198, HAL.
  4. Boucekkine, Raouf & Licandro, Omar & Puch, Luis A. & del Rio, Fernando, 2005. "Vintage capital and the dynamics of the AK model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 39-72, January.
  5. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy inertia," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2001. "Avoiding Liquidity Traps," CEPR Discussion Papers 2948, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February.
  8. Mauro Bambi, 2006. "Endogenous Growth and Time-to-Build: the AK Case," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/17, European University Institute.
  9. Benhabib, J. & Schmitt-Grohe, S. & Uribe, M., 1998. "Monetary Policy and Multiple Equilibria," Working Papers 98-02, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  10. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
  11. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2003. "Investment and interest rate policy: a discrete time analysis," Working Paper 0320, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  12. Benhabib, Jess, 2004. "Interest Rate Policy in Continuous Time with Discrete Delays," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 1-15, February.
  13. d’Albis, Hippolyte & Augeraud-Veron, Emmanuelle & Venditti, Alain, 2012. "Business cycle fluctuations and learning-by-doing externalities in a one-sector model," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 295-308.
  14. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2001. "Timing and real indeterminacy in monetary models," Working Paper 9910R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  15. Gray, Malcolm R & Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1979. "Expectational Consistency, Informational Lags, and the Formulation of Expectations in Continuous Time Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(6), pages 1457-74, November.
  16. Hippolyte D'Albis & Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron & Alain Venditti, 2009. "Business cycle fluctuations and learning-by-doing externalities in a one-sector model," Working Papers halshs-00432267, HAL.
  17. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
  18. Bill Dupor, 2000. "Investment and Interest Rate Policy," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0007, Econometric Society.
  19. Hippolyte d'Albis & Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron & Hermen Jan Hupkes, 2012. "Discontinuous Initial Value Problems for Functional Differential-Algebraic Equations of Mixed Type," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 12043, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  20. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-54, April.
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