Stress testing of the stability of the Italian banking system: a VAR approach
With the aim of contributing to the use of stress testing techniques, by now a commonly-used practice adopted by the financial community to understand the determinants of financial instability, and to measure the size of financial risk, this work represents an application of macro stress testing to the Italian banking system. The paper tries to provide an answer to two interrelated questions. Whether, and the extent to which, procyclicality is a prominent feature of banks’ soundness and whether exogenous, or policy induced, tightening of monetary conditions (sharp and sustained increases in the interest rate and/or appreciation of the exchange rate) significantly increases banks’ fragility. The task is accomplished by the estimation of three alternative VAR models each using different indicators of banks’ soundness: the ratio of non performing loans (flow and stock data) and interest margins to outstanding loans. Two main conclusions emerge. First: the behaviour of either non performing loans or interest margins is only weakly procyclical: i.e. that the solidity of Italian banks could be seriously undermined only in case of falls in output far more severe than in any previous recession since the end of the World War II. The preoccupation expressed by the literature about the dangers of financial procyclicality seems, therefore, grossly exaggerated in the case of Italy. Second: in a hypothetical scenario where monetary conditions are drastically tightened our banks’ soundness indicators exhibit little variations. In this case too the importance attached by the literature to exchange rate swings, or monetary tightening more generally, for the setting off of financial crises is vastly overstated.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.economia.unimore.it|
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Xavier Freixas & Bruno Parigi & Jean-Charles Rochet, 2000.
"Systemic risk, interbank relations, and liquidity provision by the central bank,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 611-640.
- Freixas, Xavier & Parigi, Bruno M & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2000. "Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations, and Liquidity Provision by the Central Bank," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 611-38, August.
- Freixas, Xavier & Parigi, Bruno & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 1999. "Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations and Liquidity Provision by the Central Bank," CEPR Discussion Papers 2325, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Xavier Freixas & Bruno Parigi & Jean Charles Rochet, 1998. "Systemic risk, interbank relations and liquidity provision by the Central Bank," Economics Working Papers 440, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 1999.
- X. Freixas & B. Parigi & J-C. Rochet, 2000. "Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations and Liquidity Provision by theCentral Bank," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 47, Netherlands Central Bank.
- Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Hoshi, Takeo & Ito, Takatoshi & Rose, Andrew, 2006. "International Finance," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 455-458, December.
- João A. C. Santos, 2000. "Bank capital regulation in contemporary banking theory: a review of the literature," BIS Working Papers 90, Bank for International Settlements.
- Koehn, Michael & Santomero, Anthony M, 1980. " Regulation of Bank Capital and Portfolio Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(5), pages 1235-44, December.
- Philip Lowe, 2002. "Credit risk measurement and procyclicality," BIS Working Papers 116, Bank for International Settlements.
- Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
- Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1998.
"Optimal Financial Crises,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1245-1284, 08.
- Keeley, Michael C, 1990. "Deposit Insurance, Risk, and Market Power in Banking," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1183-1200, December.
- Luca Casolaro & Leonardo Gambacorta, 2004. "Un modello dei conti economici per il sistema bancario italiano," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 519, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Nancy P. Marion & Robert P. Flood, 1998.
"Perspectiveson the Recent Currency Crisis Literature,"
IMF Working Papers
98/130, International Monetary Fund.
- Flood, Robert & Marion, Nancy, 1999. "Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 1-26, January.
- Robert Flood & Nancy Marion, 1998. "Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature," NBER Working Papers 6380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rochet, Jean-Charles, 1992. "Capital requirements and the behaviour of commercial banks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1137-1170, June.
- Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998.
"The Asian liquidity crisis,"
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
98-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Marcucci, Juri & Quagliariello, Mario, 2008.
"Is bank portfolio riskiness procyclical: Evidence from Italy using a vector autoregression,"
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money,
Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 46-63, February.
- Juri Marcucci & Mario Quagliariello, . "Is Bank Portfolio Riskiness Procyclical? Evidence from Italy using a Vector Autoregression," Discussion Papers 05/09, Department of Economics, University of York.
- Charles W. Calomiris & Gary Gorton, 1991.
"The Origins of Banking Panics: Models, Facts, and Bank Regulation,"
in: Financial Markets and Financial Crises, pages 109-174
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Charles W. Calomiris & Gary Gorton, . "The Origins of Banking Panics: Models, Facts, and Bank Regulation," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 11-90, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Glenn Hoggarth & Steffen Sorensen & Lea Zicchino, 2005. "Stress tests of UK banks using a VAR approach," Bank of England working papers 282, Bank of England.
- Kim, Daesik & Santomero, Anthony M, 1988. " Risk in Banking and Capital Regulation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1219-33, December.
- Marco Sorge, 2004. "Stress-testing financial systems: an overview of current methodologies," BIS Working Papers 165, Bank for International Settlements.
- Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
- Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 51-82, 04.
- Nancy Marion, 1999. "Some Parallels Between Currency and Banking Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 473-490, November.
- Corsetti, G. & Pesenti, P. & Roubini, N., 1998.
"What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis?,"
343, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
- Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-373, October.
- Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 343, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2000.
"Perspectives on OECD economic integration : implications for U.S. current account adjustment,"
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole,
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 169-208.
- Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2000. "Perspectives on OECD Economic Integration: Implications for US Current Account Adjustment," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt16z3s2s2, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff., 2000. "Perspectives on OECD Economic Integration: Implications for US Current Account Adjustment," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C00-116, University of California at Berkeley.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "Perspectives on OECD Economic Integration: Implications for US Current Account Adjustment," International Trade 0012004, EconWPA.
- Frederick T. Furlong & Michael C. Keeley, 1991. "Capital regulation and bank risk-taking: a note (reprinted from Journal of Banking and Finance)," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sum, pages 34-39.
- Renato Filosa, 2004. "Monetary and real shocks, the business cycle and the value of the euro," BIS Working Papers 154, Bank for International Settlements.
- Anne-Marie Brook & Franck Sédillot & Patrice Ollivaud, 2004. "Channels for Narrowing the US Current Account Deficit and Implications for Other Economies," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 390, OECD Publishing.
- Masson, Paul R, 1995. "Gaining and Losing ERM Credibility: The Case of the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(430), pages 571-82, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mod:modena:0703. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Giuseppe Marotta)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.