IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jforec/v34y2015i4p261-274.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Method of Retail Mortgage Stress Testing: Based on Time‐Frame and Magnitude Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Chang Liu
  • Raja Nassar
  • Min Guo

Abstract

In this study, a non‐stationary Markov chain model and a vector autoregressive moving average with exogenous variables coupled with a logistic function (VARMAX‐L) are used to analyze and predict the stability of a retail mortgage portfolio, based on the stress test framework. The method introduced in this paper can be used to forecast the transition probabilities in a retail mortgage over pre‐specified states, given a shock with a certain magnitude. Hence this method provides a dynamic picture of the portfolio transition process through which one can assess its behavior over time. While the paper concentrates on retail mortgages, the methodology of this study can be adapted also to analyze other credit products in banks. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Chang Liu & Raja Nassar & Min Guo, 2015. "A Method of Retail Mortgage Stress Testing: Based on Time‐Frame and Magnitude Analysis," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 261-274, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:34:y:2015:i:4:p:261-274
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael McAleer & Juan‐Ángel Jiménez‐Martín & Teodosio Pérez‐Amaral, 2013. "International Evidence on GFC‐Robust Forecasts for Risk Management under the Basel Accord," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 267-288, April.
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. Anna Staszewska‐Bystrova, 2011. "Bootstrap prediction bands for forecast paths from vector autoregressive models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(8), pages 721-735, December.
    4. Nicholas Taylor, 2011. "Forecast accuracy and effort: The case of US inflation rates," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), pages 644-665, November.
    5. Eric S. Lin & Ping‐Hung Chou & Ta‐Sheng Chou, 2011. "Testing for the usefulness of forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(5), pages 469-489, August.
    6. Cathy W.S. Chen & Richard Gerlach & Edward M. H. Lin & W. C. W. Lee, 2012. "Bayesian Forecasting for Financial Risk Management, Pre and Post the Global Financial Crisis," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(8), pages 661-687, December.
    7. Mehdi Divsalar & Habib Roodsaz & Farshad Vahdatinia & Ghassem Norouzzadeh & Amir Hossein Behrooz, 2012. "A Robust Data‐Mining Approach to Bankruptcy Prediction," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(6), pages 504-523, September.
    8. Somnath Mukhopadhyay & Adriano O. Solis & Rafael S. Gutierrez, 2012. "The Accuracy of Non‐traditional versus Traditional Methods of Forecasting Lumpy Demand," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(8), pages 721-735, December.
    9. José M. Matías & Juan C. Reboredo, 2012. "Forecasting Performance of Nonlinear Models for Intraday Stock Returns," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 172-188, March.
    10. Liam J. A. Lenten, 2012. "Henderson‐Trending of Macroeconomic Variables and Forecasting Accuracy," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), pages 68-84, January.
    11. Florian Ielpo, 2013. "Forecasting the European Credit Cycle Using Macroeconomic Variables," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 226-246, April.
    12. Marco Sorge, 2004. "Stress-testing financial systems: an overview of current methodologies," BIS Working Papers 165, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shawkat Hammoudeh & Amine Lahiani & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2014. "Asymmetric and nonlinear passthrough of energy prices to CO2 emission allowance prices," Working Papers 2014-82, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    2. Chen, Cathy W.S. & Gerlach, Richard & Hwang, Bruce B.K. & McAleer, Michael, 2012. "Forecasting Value-at-Risk using nonlinear regression quantiles and the intra-day range," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 557-574.
    3. Chi-Wei Su, 2012. "The relationship between exchange rate and macroeconomic variables in China," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 33-56.
    4. McAleer, Michael & Jimenez-Martin, Juan-Angel & Perez-Amaral, Teodosio, 2013. "Has the Basel Accord improved risk management during the global financial crisis?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 250-265.
    5. Erie Febrian & Aldrin Herwany, 2009. "Volatility Forecasting Models and Market Co-Integration: A Study on South-East Asian Markets," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200911, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Sep 2009.
    6. Bryant, Henry L. & Haigh, Michael S., 2003. "Comparing The Performances Of The Partial Equilibrium And Time-Series Approaches To Hedging," Working Papers 28580, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    7. McAleer, Michael & Jimenez-Martin, Juan-Angel & Perez-Amaral, Teodosio, 2013. "GFC-robust risk management strategies under the Basel Accord," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 97-111.
    8. Jimenez-Martin, Juan-Angel & McAleer, Michael & Pérez-Amaral, Teodosio & Santos, Paulo Araújo, 2013. "GFC-robust risk management under the Basel Accord using extreme value methodologies," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 223-237.
    9. Madina D. Sharapiyeva & Kunanbayeva Duissekul & Nurseiytova Gulmira & Kozhamkulova Zhanna, 2019. "Energy Efficiency of Transport and Logistics Infrastructure: The Example of the Republic of Kazakhstan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(5), pages 331-338.
    10. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-387, October.
    12. Bekiros, Stelios, 2014. "Nonlinear causality testing with stepwise multivariate filtering: Evidence from stock and currency markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 336-348.
    13. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the teaching of econometrics," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170096-117, December.
    14. Thi Hong Hanh Pham, 2018. "Liquidity and exchange rate volatility," Working Papers halshs-01708633, HAL.
    15. Dennis W. Jansen, 1989. "Does inflation uncertainty affect output growth? Further evidence," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 43-54.
    16. Pedro Hugo Clavijo Cortes, 2017. "Balance comercial y volatilidad del tipo de cambio nominal: Un estudio de series de tiempo para Colombia," Revista Economía y Región, Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar, vol. 11(1), pages 37-58, June.
    17. Pami Dua & Nishita Raje & Satyananda Sahoo, 2004. "Interest Rate Modeling and Forecasting in India," Occasional papers 3, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    18. Balaguer, Jacint & Ripollés, Jordi, 2012. "Testing for price response asymmetries in the Spanish fuel market. New evidence from daily data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2066-2071.
    19. Raphael Bergoeing & Felipe Morandé & Raimundo Soto, 2002. "Asset Prices in Chile: Facts and Fads," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 8, pages 235-278, Central Bank of Chile.
    20. Eliana Angelini & Matteo Foglia, 2018. "The Relationship Between IPO and Macroeconomics Factors: an Empirical Analysis from UK Market," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 19(1), pages 319-336, May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:34:y:2015:i:4:p:261-274. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.