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Forecasting the European Credit Cycle Using Macroeconomic Variables

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  • Florian Ielpo

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  • Florian Ielpo, 2013. "Forecasting the European Credit Cycle Using Macroeconomic Variables," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 226-246, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:32:y:2013:i:3:p:226-246
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Castrén, Olli & Takalo, Tuomas & Wood, Geoffrey, 2004. "Labour market reform and the sustainability of exchange rate pegs," Research Discussion Papers 22/2004, Bank of Finland.
    2. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, pages 385-407.
    3. Bai, Jushan & Ng, Serena, 2008. "Forecasting economic time series using targeted predictors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 304-317.
    4. Hans Dewachter & Marco Lyrio, 2003. "Macro Factors and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers Department of Economics ces0304, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    5. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 745-787.
    7. Hans Dewachter & Marco Lyrio, 2002. "Macro Factors and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," International Economics Working Papers Series wpie007, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën, International Economics.
    8. Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, February.
    9. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 337-364.
    10. Dewachter, Hans & Lyrio, Marco, 2006. "Macro Factors and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(1), pages 119-140, February.
    11. Hordahl, Peter & Tristani, Oreste & Vestin, David, 2006. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term-structure dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 405-444.
    12. Hordahl, Peter & Tristani, Oreste & Vestin, David, 2006. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term-structure dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 405-444.
    13. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
    14. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Borag[caron]an Aruoba, S., 2006. "The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 309-338.
    15. Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield-Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, pages 379-406.
    16. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2011. "The affine arbitrage-free class of Nelson-Siegel term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 4-20.
    17. Koopman, Siem Jan & Mallee, Max I. P. & Van der Wel, Michel, 2010. "Analyzing the Term Structure of Interest Rates Using the Dynamic Nelson–Siegel Model With Time-Varying Parameters," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, pages 329-343.
    18. Aruoba, S. BoraÄŸan & Diebold, Francis X. & Scotti, Chiara, 2009. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, pages 417-427.
    19. Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2002. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-34, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    20. Boivin, Jean & Ng, Serena, 2006. "Are more data always better for factor analysis?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 169-194.
    21. Dennis, Richard & Ravenna, Federico, 2008. "Learning and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, pages 1964-1994.
    22. De Pooter, Michiel & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Dick, 2006. "Predicting the term structure of interest rates incorporating parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and macroeconomic information," MPRA Paper 2512, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Mar 2007.
    23. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, pages 147-162.
    24. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 337-364.
    25. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2011. "The affine arbitrage-free class of Nelson-Siegel term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 4-20.
    26. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 745-787.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chang Liu & Raja Nassar & Min Guo, 2015. "A Method of Retail Mortgage Stress Testing: Based on Time‐Frame and Magnitude Analysis," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 261-274, July.

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