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Zum Einfluß von Unsicherheit auf die gesamtwirtschaftliche Investitionstätigkeit

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  • Mailand, Wilhelm

Abstract

Mit dem vorliegenden Aufsatz wird das Ziel verfolgt, die Erklärung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Unternehmensinvestitionen (Ausrüstungsinvestitionen der Unternehmen und Wirtschaftsbauinvestitionen) durch die Einbeziehung von Variablen, mit denen sich Unsicherheit abbilden läßt, zu ergänzen. In der gegenwärtigen konjunkturellen Situation wird angesichts der Unzulänglichkeit die Investitionsschwäche trotz positiver Rahmenbedingungen (niedriges Zinsniveau, fairer Wechselkurs, moderate Lohnentwicklung, Exportwachstum etc.) zu erklären, häufig das Argument angeführt, daß die "Unsicherheit" die Unternehmer zu ihrer abwartenden Haltung in bezug auf Investitionsausgaben bringe. Theoretisch unterstützt wird diese Argumentation durch die Modelle der neuen Investitionstheorie, die ein Investitionsvorhaben als Realoption betrachten und zu der Aussage kommen, daß unter entsprechenden Annahmen mit zunehmender Unsicherheit eine zeitliche Verzögerung der Investitionstätigkeit einhergeht (vgl. Dixit und Pindyck (1994) für eine umfangreiche Darstellung). Kerngedanke ist in diesem Fall, daß sich Sachinvestitionen durch Irreversibilität der Anschaffungsausgaben auszeichnen. Besteht nun für den Unternehmer die Möglichkeit die Investitionsentscheidung in einem gewissen zeitlichen Rahmen zu verschieben, so kann es sich bei höherer Unsicherheit lohnen, die Option zu investieren aufrechtzuerhalten und zusätzliche Informationen abzuwarten.

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  • Mailand, Wilhelm, 1998. "Zum Einfluß von Unsicherheit auf die gesamtwirtschaftliche Investitionstätigkeit," HWWA Discussion Papers 57, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:hwwadp:26305
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    1. Schumacher, Christian & Loose, Brigitte & Langmantel, Erich & Gottschalk, Jan & Fritsche, Ulrich & Döpke, Jörg, 1999. "Indikatoren zur Prognose der Investitionen in Deutschland," Kiel Working Papers 906, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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