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Zum Einfluß von Unsicherheit auf die gesamtwirtschaftliche Investitionstätigkeit

  • Mailand, Wilhelm
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    Mit dem vorliegenden Aufsatz wird das Ziel verfolgt, die Erklärung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Unternehmensinvestitionen (Ausrüstungsinvestitionen der Unternehmen und Wirtschaftsbauinvestitionen) durch die Einbeziehung von Variablen, mit denen sich Unsicherheit abbilden läßt, zu ergänzen. In der gegenwärtigen konjunkturellen Situation wird angesichts der Unzulänglichkeit die Investitionsschwäche trotz positiver Rahmenbedingungen (niedriges Zinsniveau, fairer Wechselkurs, moderate Lohnentwicklung, Exportwachstum etc.) zu erklären, häufig das Argument angeführt, daß die "Unsicherheit" die Unternehmer zu ihrer abwartenden Haltung in bezug auf Investitionsausgaben bringe. Theoretisch unterstützt wird diese Argumentation durch die Modelle der neuen Investitionstheorie, die ein Investitionsvorhaben als Realoption betrachten und zu der Aussage kommen, daß unter entsprechenden Annahmen mit zunehmender Unsicherheit eine zeitliche Verzögerung der Investitionstätigkeit einhergeht (vgl. Dixit und Pindyck (1994) für eine umfangreiche Darstellung). Kerngedanke ist in diesem Fall, daß sich Sachinvestitionen durch Irreversibilität der Anschaffungsausgaben auszeichnen. Besteht nun für den Unternehmer die Möglichkeit die Investitionsentscheidung in einem gewissen zeitlichen Rahmen zu verschieben, so kann es sich bei höherer Unsicherheit lohnen, die Option zu investieren aufrechtzuerhalten und zusätzliche Informationen abzuwarten.

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    File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/19196/1/57.pdf
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    Paper provided by Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA) in its series HWWA Discussion Papers with number 57.

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    Date of creation: 1998
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:hwwadp:26305
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    1. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    2. Ferderer, J Peter, 1993. "The Impact of Uncertainty on Aggregate Investment Spending: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(1), pages 30-48, February.
    3. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    4. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-33, March.
    5. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
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    7. Batchelor, Roy & Dua, Pami, 1993. "Survey vs ARCH Measures of Inflation Uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 341-53, August.
    8. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    9. Driver, Ciaran & Moreton, David, 1991. "The Influence of Uncertainty on UK Manufacturing Investment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1452-59, November.
    10. Cuthbertson, K. & Gasparro, D., 1995. "Fixed investment decisions in UK manufacturing: The importance of Tobin's Q, output and debt," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 919-941, May.
    11. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
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