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Assessing the Resilience of ASEAN Banking Systems: The Case of the Philippines

Author

Listed:
  • Albert, Jose Ramon

    () (Philippine Institute for Development Studies)

  • Ng, Thiam Hee

    () (Asian Development Bank)

Abstract

Since the global financial crisis in 2008/09 there has been heightened concern about the resilience of banking systems in Southeast Asia. This paper proposes a methodology that uses a macroprudential perspective to assess the resilience of banking systems in member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. It then proceeds to apply this methodology to examine the resilience of the Philippine banking system. Data on financial soundness in the Philippine banking system are utilized in a vector autoregression model to study the dynamic relationships that exist among financial and macroeconomic indicators. Using impulse response functions, a simulation of financial ratios in the banking system is conducted by assuming unlikely but plausible stress scenarios to determine whether banking system credit and capital could withstand the impact of such circumstances. In the stress scenarios, the estimated impact of macroeconomic shocks on nonperforming loan and capital adequacy ratios is generally minimal. The results, however, do suggest that the Philippine banking system has some vulnerability to interest rate and stock market shocks. The results of such stress testing provide a better understanding of the level of preparedness required for managing risks in the financial system, especially in the wake of continuing global economic uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Albert, Jose Ramon & Ng, Thiam Hee, 2012. "Assessing the Resilience of ASEAN Banking Systems: The Case of the Philippines," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 93, Asian Development Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbrei:0093
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2006. "Risk Assessment for Banking Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(9), pages 1301-1314, September.
    2. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    3. De Bandt, O. & Oung, V., 2004. "Assessment of “stress tests” conducted on the French banking system," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 5, pages 55-72, November.
    4. Marco Sorge, 2004. "Stress-testing financial systems: an overview of current methodologies," BIS Working Papers 165, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Schou-Zibell, Lotte & Albert, Jose Ramon & Song, Lei Lei, 2010. "A Macroprudential Framework for Monitoring and Examining Financial Soundness," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 43, Asian Development Bank.
    6. Maria Soledad Martinez Peria & Giovanni Majnoni & Matthew T Jones & Winfrid Blaschke, 2001. "Stress Testing of Financial Systems; An Overview of Issues, Methodologies, and FSAP Experiences," IMF Working Papers 01/88, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Love, Inessa & Zicchino, Lea, 2006. "Financial development and dynamic investment behavior: Evidence from panel VAR," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 190-210, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banking System; Macroprudential; Stress Testing; Philippines; Panel VAR;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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