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Stress Testing Banks' Credit Risk Using Mixture Vector Autoregressive Models


  • Tom Pak-wing Fong

    (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

  • Chun-shan Wong

    (Department of Finance, The Chinese University of Hong Kong)


This paper estimates macroeconomic credit risk of banks¡¦ loan portfolio based on a class of mixture vector autoregressive models. Such class of models can differentiate distributions of default rates and macroeconomic conditions for different market situations and can capture their dynamics evolving over time, including the feedback effect from an increase in fragility back to the macroeconomy. These extensions can facilitate the evaluation of credit risks of loan portfolio based on different credit loss distributions.

Suggested Citation

  • Tom Pak-wing Fong & Chun-shan Wong, 2008. "Stress Testing Banks' Credit Risk Using Mixture Vector Autoregressive Models," Working Papers 0813, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
  • Handle: RePEc:hkg:wpaper:0813

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Markku Lanne & Pentti Saikkonen, 2003. "Modeling the U.S. Short-Term Interest Rate by Mixture Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 1(1), pages 96-125.
    2. Armando Méndez Morales & Jose Giancarlo Gasha, 2004. "Identifying Threshold Effects in Credit Risk Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 04/150, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Berchtold, Andre, 2003. "Mixture transition distribution (MTD) modeling of heteroscedastic time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 399-411, January.
    4. Marco Sorge, 2004. "Stress-testing financial systems: an overview of current methodologies," BIS Working Papers 165, Bank for International Settlements.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sergio Edwin Torrico Salamanca, 2014. "Macro credit scoring as a proposal for quantifying credit risk," Investigación & Desarrollo 0814, Universidad Privada Boliviana, revised Nov 2014.
    2. Alfred Wong & Tom Fong, 2013. "Gauging the Safehavenness of Currencies," Working Papers 132013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.

    More about this item


    Stress test; Hong Kong Banking; Credit risk; Mixture autoregressive models; Macroeconomic shocks; Value-at-risk.;

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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