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Can Italy Grow Out of Its NPL Overhang? A Panel Threshold Analysis

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  • Mr. Kamiar Mohaddes
  • Mr. Mehdi Raissi
  • Miss Anke Weber

Abstract

This paper examines whether a tipping point exists for real GDP growth in Italy above which the ratio of non-performing loans (NPLs) to total loans falls significantly. Estimating a heterogeneous dynamic panel-threshold model with data on 17 Italian regions over the period 1997–2014, we provide evidence for the presence of growth-threshold effects on the NPL ratio in Italy. More specifically, we find that real GDP growth above 1.2 percent, if sustained for a number of years, is associated with a significant decline in the NPLs ratio. Achieving such growth rates requires decisively tackling long-standing structural rigidities and improving the quality of fiscal policy. Given the modest potential growth outlook, however, under which banks are likely to struggle to grow out of their NPL overhang, further policy measures are needed to put the NPL ratio on a firm downward path over the medium term.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Kamiar Mohaddes & Mr. Mehdi Raissi & Miss Anke Weber, 2017. "Can Italy Grow Out of Its NPL Overhang? A Panel Threshold Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2017/066, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2017/066
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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Causi & Andrea Baldini, 2018. "Determinants Of Loan And Bad Loan Dynamics: Evidence From Italy," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' o232, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    2. Michal Andrle & Mr. Alvar Kangur & Mr. Mehdi Raissi, 2018. "Italy: Quantifying the Benefits of a Comprehensive Reform Package," IMF Working Papers 2018/060, International Monetary Fund.
    3. John Fell & Maciej Grodzicki & Julian Metzler & Edward O’Brien, 2018. "Non-performing loans and euro area bank lending behaviour after the crisis," Revista de Estabilidad Financiera, Banco de España, issue NOV.
    4. Gabriella Chiesa & José Manuel Mansilla-Fernández, 2019. "Disentangling the transmission channel NPLs-cost of capital-lending supply," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(16), pages 1333-1338, September.
    5. Michal Andrle & Shafik Hebous & Alvar Kangur & Mehdi Raissi, 2021. "Italy: toward a growth-friendly fiscal reform," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(1), pages 385-420, April.
    6. Brunella Bruno & Immacolata Marino, 2018. "How Do Banks Respond to Non-Performing Loans?," CSEF Working Papers 513, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 30 Jul 2021.
    7. Gareth Anderson & Mr. Mehdi Raissi, 2018. "Corporate Indebtedness and Low Productivity Growth of Italian Firms," IMF Working Papers 2018/033, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Elizabeth J. Casabianca, 2020. "Credit Supply Response to Non-Performing Loans: Some Evidence From the Italian Banking System," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 10(4), pages 1-3.
    9. Aslan, Caglayan & Bulut, Erdem & Cepni, Oguzhan & Yilmaz, Muhammed Hasan, 2022. "Does climate change affect bank lending behavior?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    10. John Fell & Maciej Grodzicki & Julian Metzler & Edward O’Brien, 2018. "Non-performing loans and euro area bank lending behaviour after the crisis," Financial Stability Review, Banco de España, issue NOV.
    11. Elisabetta Montanaro & Mario Tonveronachi, 2017. "Vulnerabilita' del sistema bancario italiano. Diagnosi e rimedi (Dealing with the vulnerability of the Italian banking system)," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 70(280), pages 299-368.
    12. José Manuel Mansilla-Fernández, 2020. "Non-Performing loans, financial stability, and banking competition: evidence for listed and non-listed Eurozone banks," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 232(1), pages 29-52, March.
    13. Thomas Theobald & Silke Tober, 2018. "IMK Finanzmarktstabilitätsreport 2017/2018," IMK Report 134-2018, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    14. Xinhai Lu & Jiao Hou & Yifeng Tang & Ting Wang & Tianyi Li & Xupeng Zhang, 2022. "Evaluating the Impact of the Highway Infrastructure Construction and the Threshold Effect on Cultivated Land Use Efficiency: Evidence from Chinese Provincial Panel Data," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-20, July.
    15. Pongpitch Amatyakul & Tosapol Apaitan & Savaphol Hiruntiaranakul & Nuwat Nookhwun, 2021. "Revisiting Thailand's Monetary Policy Model for an Integrated Policy Analysis," PIER Discussion Papers 164, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; real GDP; Italy; nonperforming loans; real output growth; panel tests of threshold effects; NPL ratio; NPL-ratio growth; growth-threshold effect; ratios data; ratio of non-performing loans; resolution measure; Threshold analysis; Distressed assets; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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