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Does climate change affect bank lending behavior?

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  • Aslan, Caglayan
  • Bulut, Erdem
  • Cepni, Oguzhan
  • Yilmaz, Muhammed Hasan

Abstract

We examine how banks adjust credit supply in areas with higher exposure to climate risks by utilizing the province-level air pollution and loan growth data of a large emerging market, Turkey, following the Paris Agreement in 2015. Our results show that banks limit their credit extension to more polluted provinces in the post-agreement interval, implying that banks consider climate change-related risks and adjust their credit provisioning accordingly. Our baseline findings are intact against a myriad of robustness checks. We also find that the shift in the climate risk-credit provisioning nexus is asymmetric depending on the levels of air pollution.

Suggested Citation

  • Aslan, Caglayan & Bulut, Erdem & Cepni, Oguzhan & Yilmaz, Muhammed Hasan, 2022. "Does climate change affect bank lending behavior?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:220:y:2022:i:c:s0165176522003330
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110859
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    4. Adriano Bellinvia & Paola Brighi & Valeria Venturelli, 2026. "Banks and climate risk: a bibliometric review and policy perspective," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 27(2), pages 1-29, June.
    5. Rabbani, Mustafa Raza & Kiran, Madiha & Cepni, Oguzhan & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr, 2025. "Fortune favors the green: Role of green investment in mitigating climate risk and the moderating role of ESG performance," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    6. Ozili, Peterson K, 2023. "Effect of Abnormal Credit Supply on Selected Macroeconomic Variables of Ecowas Countries: 1993-2021," MPRA Paper 127922, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Olaboopo, Olakunle & Boamah, Evans O., 2026. "Climate change news risk and advertising spending," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
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    10. Yildirim, Canan & Vanwalleghem, Dieter, 2026. "The rise and demise of the Net-Zero Banking Alliance: Did the markets care?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    11. Antonio Forte & Selay Sahan & Damiano B. Silipo, 2024. "Do Natural Disasters Reduce Loans to the More CO 2 -Emitting Sectors?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-24, May.
    12. Shouwei Li & Xin Wu, 2023. "How does climate risk affect bank loan supply? Empirical evidence from China," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2169-2204, August.
    13. Shouwei Li & Qingqing Li & Shuai Lu, 2024. "The impact of climate risk on credit supply to private and public sectors: an empirical analysis of 174 countries," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 2443-2465, January.
    14. Alkatheeri, Hanan & Mertzanis, Charilaos & Kampouris, Ilias, 2026. "Climate laws and financial stability," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    15. Fátima Sol Murta & Paulo Miguel Gama, 2024. "Sustainability and the domestic credit market: worldwide evidence," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(4), pages 827-845, December.
    16. Pan, Zhilei & Li, Shouwei & Li, Jingwei & Gong, Chen, 2024. "Air pollution and bank risk taking: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    17. Chalabi-Jabado, Fatima & Ziane, Ydriss, 2024. "Climate risks, financial performance and lending growth: Evidence from the banking industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    18. Carè, R. & Fatima, R. & Boitan, I.A., 2024. "Central banks and climate risks: Where we are and where we are going?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 1200-1229.
    19. Meshel Muzuva & Daniel Muzuva, 2024. "The impact of climate change on banks loan portfolios and strategies for effective climate risk management," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 13(6), pages 148-157, September.
    20. Zannatus Saba, 2025. "Risk of rising temperature and newly issued debt maturity: size, industry and regional perspective," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 49(4), pages 986-1024, December.
    21. Bin Wang & Jiaxin Liu, 2024. "Impact of Climate Change on Green Technology Innovation—An Examination Based on Microfirm Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(24), pages 1-25, December.
    22. Rapih, Subroto & Borges, Jorge Tavares & Susantiningrum,, 2025. "Environmental policies stringency and cross-border banking: The mediating role of green industries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    23. Chen, Xiao & Guo, Gangxing, 2024. "Air pollution and online lender behavior: Evidence from Chinese peer-to-peer lending," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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