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Climate Change-Related Regulatory Risks and Bank Lending

Author

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  • Mueller, Isabella
  • Sfrappini, Eleonora

Abstract

We identify the effect of climate change-related regulatory risks on credit real-location. Our evidence suggests that effects depend borrower's region. Following an increase in salience of regulatory risks, banks reallocate credit to US frms that could be negatively impacted by regulatory interventions. Conversely, in Europe, banks lend more to firms that could benefit from environmental regulation. The effect is moderated by banks' own loan portfolio composition. Banks with a portfolio tilted towards firms that could be negatively a affected by environmental policies increasingly support these firms. Overall, our results indicate that financial implications of regulation associated with climate change appear to be the main drivers of banks' behavior. JEL Classification: G21, Q51, Q58

Suggested Citation

  • Mueller, Isabella & Sfrappini, Eleonora, 2022. "Climate Change-Related Regulatory Risks and Bank Lending," Working Paper Series 2670, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20222670
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    3. Fourné, Marius & Li, Xiang, 2025. "Climate policy and international capital reallocation," IWH Discussion Papers 20/2024, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2025.
    4. Svetlana Popova & Natalia Turdyeva, 2024. "Environmental and Climate Factors of Corporate Lending in Russia," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps143, Bank of Russia.
    5. Fiordelisi, Franco & Ricci, Ornella & Santilli, Gianluca, 2025. "Spotlight on physical risk: Assessing the banks' stock reaction to the ECB climate stress test," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    6. Kirschenmann, Karolin & Koch, Felicitas & von Schickfus, Marie-Theres & Hainz, Christa, 2026. "Taxonomy talks, credit walks: The EU's climate disclosure framework and bank lending," ZEW Discussion Papers 26-004, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    7. Md Yousuf Ali & Naif Alsagr & Nicholas Apergis & Manirul Islam, 2026. "Climate Risk and Capital Resilience in EU Deposit‐Taking Financial Institutions: Insights Into Environmental and Cultural Dynamics," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 3740-3759, March.
    8. Zacharias Sautner & Laurence Van Lent & Grigory Vilkov & Ruishen Zhang, 2023. "Firm‐Level Climate Change Exposure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1449-1498, June.
    9. Müller, Isabella & Nguyen, Huyen & Nguyen, Trang, 2024. "Carbon transition risk and corporate loan securitization," IWH Discussion Papers 22/2022, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2024.
    10. Maria Alessia Aiello, 2024. "Climate supervisory shocks and bank lending: empirical evidence from microdata," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1465, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. Fuchs, Larissa & Ngyuen, Huyen & Nguyen, Trang & Schaeck, Klaus, 2024. "Climate stress tests, bank lending, and the transition to the carbon-neutral economy," IWH Discussion Papers 9/2024, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2024.
    12. Xiaoyang Li & Xinyue Zhang, 2025. "Climate Change Exposure and Cash Holdings," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-35, January.
    13. Jonah J. Allen, 2025. "Can Anti-ESG Policy Protect Targeted Industries from Divestment?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 88(5), pages 1435-1477, May.
    14. Koetter, Michael & Nguyen, Huyen, 2023. "European banking in transformational times: Regulation, crises, and challenges," IWH Studies 7/2023, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    15. María J. Nieto & Chryssa Papathanassiou, 2024. "Financing the orderly transition to a low carbon economy in the EU: the regulatory framework for the banking channel," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(2), pages 112-126, June.
    16. Md Lutfur Rahman & Sudipta Bose, 2025. "Firm-level Climate Vulnerability and Corporate Risk-taking: International Evidence," Working Papers DP-2024-36, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    17. Tastaftiyan Risfandy & M. Kabir Hassan, 2026. "Excess Remuneration, Governance, and Risk‐Taking in Islamic Banks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 1899-1916, April.
    18. Antonio Forte & Selay Sahan & Damiano B. Silipo, 2024. "Do Natural Disasters Reduce Loans to the More CO 2 -Emitting Sectors?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-24, May.
    19. Anna-Maria Isabel Maurer, 2025. "The Disconnect between Syndicated Lending Activities and ESG Determinants in Banks’ Executive Compensation," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 15(3), pages 1-2.
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    21. Arnone, Massimo & Leogrande, Angelo, 2024. "The Green Trilemma: Energy Efficiency, Banking Stability and Climate Risk in the ESG Context at World Level," SocArXiv 4758h, Center for Open Science.
    22. Mueller, Isabella & Nguyen, Huyen & Nguyen, Trang, 2025. "Carbon transition risk and corporate loan securitization," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    23. Hale, Galina & Meisenbacher, Brigid & Nechio, Fernanda, 2024. "Industrial Composition of Syndicated Loans and Banks’ Climate Commitments," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt16x0k16m, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.

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    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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