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Can Italy Grow Out of Its NPL Overhang? A Panel Threshold Analysis

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  • Mohaddes, K.
  • Raissi, M.
  • Weber, A.

Abstract

This paper examines whether a tipping point exists for real GDP growth in Italy above which the ratio of non-performing loans (NPLs) to total loans falls significantly. Estimating a heterogeneous dynamic panel-threshold model with data on 17 Italian regions over the period 1997.2014, we provide evidence for the presence of growth-threshold effects on the NPL ratio in Italy. More specifically, we and that real GDP growth above 1.2 percent, if sustained for a number of years, is associated with a significant decline in the NPLs ratio. Achieving such growth rates requires decisively tackling long-standing structural rigidities and improving the quality of fiscal policy. Given the modest potential growth outlook, however, under which banks are likely to struggle to grow out of their NPL overhang, further policy measures are needed to put the NPL ratio on a firm downward path over the medium term.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohaddes, K. & Raissi, M. & Weber, A., 2017. "Can Italy Grow Out of Its NPL Overhang? A Panel Threshold Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1723, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:1723
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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Causi & Andrea Baldini, 2018. "Determinants Of Loan And Bad Loan Dynamics: Evidence From Italy," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' o232, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    2. John Fell & Maciej Grodzicki & Julian Metzler & Edward O’Brien, 2018. "Non-performing loans and euro area bank lending behaviour after the crisis," Revista de Estabilidad Financiera, Banco de España;Revista de Estabilidad Financiera Homepage, issue NOV.
    3. Brunella Bruno & Immacolata Marino, 2018. "How Do Banks Respond to Non-Performing Loans?," CSEF Working Papers 513, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 02 May 2020.
    4. Elisabetta Montanaro & Mario Tonveronachi, 2017. "Vulnerabilita' del sistema bancario italiano. Diagnosi e rimedi (Dealing with the vulnerability of the Italian banking system)," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 70(280), pages 299-368.
    5. Thomas Theobald & Silke Tober, 2018. "IMK Finanzmarktstabilitätsreport 2017/2018," IMK Report 134-2018, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    6. Michal Andrle & Alvar Kangur & Mehdi Raissi, 2018. "Italy: Quantifying the Benefits of a Comprehensive Reform Package," IMF Working Papers 18/60, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Italy; non-performing loans; real output growth; panel tests of threshold effects.;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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