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Bank lending procyclicality and credit quality during financial crises

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  • Caporale, Guglielmo Maria
  • Di Colli, Stefano
  • Lopez, Juan Sergio

Abstract

This paper analyses macroeconomic and financial determinants of bad loans applying a SVAR approach to investigate whether excessive loans granted during expansionary phases can explain the more than proportional increase in non-performing loans during contractionary periods. The results indicate that the effects of a permanent shock to bad loans on the excess of credit are significant and persistent for bad loans to firms, but not for bad loans to households or in the case of Cooperative Credit Banks, who adopt more efficient lending policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Di Colli, Stefano & Lopez, Juan Sergio, 2014. "Bank lending procyclicality and credit quality during financial crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 142-157.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:43:y:2014:i:c:p:142-157
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2014.07.031
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    2. Raffaella Barone, 2018. "The Italian CCB Reform and Usury Credit Risk: A Quantitative Analysis," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 4(3), pages 463-496, November.
    3. Pallavi Chavan & Leonardo Gambacorta, 2019. "Bank lending and loan quality: an emerging economy perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 1-29, July.
    4. Dobromił Serwa & Piotr Wdowiński, 2017. "Modeling Macro-Financial Linkages: Combined Impulse Response Functions in SVAR Models," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 9(4), pages 323-357, December.
    5. Saom Shawleen Anita & Nishat Tasnova & Nousheen Nawar, 2022. "Are non-performing loans sensitive to macroeconomic determinants? an empirical evidence from banking sector of SAARC countries," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16, December.
    6. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Matteo Alessi & Stefano Di Colli & Juan Sergio Lopez, 2015. "Loan Loss Provision: Some Empirical Evidence for Italian Banks," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1459, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Solomon Y. Deku & Alper Kara & Artur Semeyutin, 2021. "The predictive strength of MBS yield spreads during asset bubbles," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 111-142, January.
    8. Krainer, Robert E., 2017. "Economic stability under alternative banking systems: Theory and policy," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 107-118.
    9. Abdelsalam, Omneya & Azmi, Wajahat & Disli, Mustafa & Kowsalya, V., 2023. "Bank lending cyclicality and ESG activities: Global evidence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PD).
    10. Pallavi Chavan & Leonardo Gambacorta, 2016. "Bank lending and loan quality: the case of India," BIS Working Papers 595, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Boufateh, Talel & Saadaoui, Zied, 2021. "The time-varying responses of financial intermediation and inflation to oil supply and demand shocks in the US: Evidence from Bayesian TVP-SVAR-SV approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    12. Matteo Deleidi, 2019. "Endogenous money theory: horizontalists, structuralists and the credit market," Bulletin of Political Economy, Bulletin of Political Economy, vol. 13(1), pages 21-53, June.
    13. ROMAN Angela & BILAN Irina, 2015. "An Empirical Analysis Of The Macroeconomic Determinants Of Non-Performing Loans In Eu28 Banking Sector," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 67(2), pages 108-127.
    14. Matteo Alessi & Stefano Di Colli & Juan Sergio Lopez, 2014. "Loan Loss Provisioning and Relationship Banking in Italy: Practices and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Entrepreneurial and Organizational Diversity, European Research Institute on Cooperative and Social Enterprises, vol. 3(1), pages 111-129, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Loan losses; Macroeconomic determinants; Italian banking system; SVAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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