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Stress Testing for Russian Real Sector: First Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Salnikov, V.

    (IEF RAS, CMASF, Moscow, Russia)

  • Mogilat, A.

    (IEF RAS, CMASF, Moscow, Russia)

  • Maslov, I.

    (IEF RAS, CMASF, Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

Relying on the international studies of companies' default risk assessment, we developed the short-term forecasting stress-test model for Russian real sector companies. Our bankruptcy prediction model is based on the financial statements' figures and industry indicators. We estimated the significance of a number of factors which have never been used in international practice (share on local market, financial state of parent companies, etc.) Our ex post forecast proved to be effective in risky assets' assessment for large groups of companies (branches, regions, etc.).

Suggested Citation

  • Salnikov, V. & Mogilat, A. & Maslov, I., 2012. "Stress Testing for Russian Real Sector: First Approach," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 46-70.
  • Handle: RePEc:nea:journl:y:2012:i:16:p:46-70
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Пересецкий А.А., 2007. "Методы Оценки Вероятности Дефолта Банков," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 43(3), июль.
    2. Koopman, Siem Jan & Kräussl, Roman & Lucas, André & Monteiro, André B., 2009. "Credit cycles and macro fundamentals," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 42-54, January.
    3. Kaminsky, Graciela L & Reinhart, Carmen M, 1998. "Financial Crises in Asia and Latin America: Then and Now," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 444-448, May.
    4. Karminsky, Alexandr & Peresetsky, Anatoly, 2007. "Models of Banks Ratings," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 5(1), pages 3-19.
    5. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    6. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    7. Petr Jakubík, 2006. "Does Credit Risk Vary with Economic Cycles? The Case of Finland," Working Papers IES 2006/11, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2006.
    8. O. Solntsev & A. Pestova & M. Mamonov, 2010. "Stress Test," Problems of Economic Transition, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(8), pages 68-94.
    9. Ohlson, Ja, 1980. "Financial Ratios And The Probabilistic Prediction Of Bankruptcy," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 109-131.
    10. Anatoly Peresetsky & Alexandr Karminsky & Sergei Golovan, 2011. "Probability of default models of Russian banks," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 297-334, November.
    11. Samuel Hanson & Til Schuermann, 2004. "Estimating probabilities of default," Staff Reports 190, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    12. Пересецкий А.А. & Карминский А.М. & Ван Суст А.Г.О., 2004. "Моделирование Рейтингов Российских Банков," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 40(4), октябрь.
    13. Gertjan W. Vlieghe, 2001. "Indicators of fragility in the UK corporate sector," Bank of England working papers 146, Bank of England.
    14. Marco Sorge, 2004. "Stress-testing financial systems: an overview of current methodologies," BIS Working Papers 165, Bank for International Settlements.
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    Cited by:

    1. Karminsky, A. & Rybalka, A., 2018. "Negative Net Worth of Manufacturing Companies: Corporate Governance and Industry Expectations," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 76-103.
    2. Mogilat , Anastasia & Ipatova, Irina, 2016. "Technical efficiency as a factor of Russian industrial companies’ risks of financial distress," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 42, pages 05-29.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit scoring; stress testing; real sector; Russian economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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