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Stress Testing for Russian Real Sector: First Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Salnikov, V.

    (IEF RAS, CMASF, Moscow, Russia)

  • Mogilat, A.

    (IEF RAS, CMASF, Moscow, Russia)

  • Maslov, I.

    (IEF RAS, CMASF, Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

Relying on the international studies of companies' default risk assessment, we developed the short-term forecasting stress-test model for Russian real sector companies. Our bankruptcy prediction model is based on the financial statements' figures and industry indicators. We estimated the significance of a number of factors which have never been used in international practice (share on local market, financial state of parent companies, etc.) Our ex post forecast proved to be effective in risky assets' assessment for large groups of companies (branches, regions, etc.).

Suggested Citation

  • Salnikov, V. & Mogilat, A. & Maslov, I., 2012. "Stress Testing for Russian Real Sector: First Approach," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 46-70.
    • Handle: RePEc:nea:journl:y:2012:i:16:p:46-70
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. Virolainen, Kimmo, 2004. "Macro stress testing with a macroeconomic credit risk model for Finland," Research Discussion Papers 18/2004, Bank of Finland.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mogilat , Anastasia & Ipatova, Irina, 2016. "Technical efficiency as a factor of Russian industrial companies’ risks of financial distress," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 42, pages 05-29.
    2. Karminsky, A. & Rybalka, A., 2018. "Negative Net Worth of Manufacturing Companies: Corporate Governance and Industry Expectations," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 76-103.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit scoring; stress testing; real sector; Russian economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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