Taking the Twists into Account: Predicting Firm Bankruptcy Risk with Splines of Financial Ratios
We demonstrate improvements in predictive power when introducing spline functions to take account of highly non-linear relationships between firm failure and earnings, leverage, and liquidity in a logistic bankruptcy model. Our results show that modeling excessive non-linearities yields substantially improved bankruptcy predictions, on the order of 70 to 90 percent, compared with a standard logistic model. The spline model provides several important and surprising insights into non-monotonic bankruptcy relationships. We find that low-leveraged and highly profitable firms are riskier than given by a standard model. These features are remarkably stable over time, suggesting that they are of a structural nature.
|Date of creation:||01 Nov 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden|
Phone: 08 - 787 00 00
Fax: 08-21 05 31
Web page: http://www.riksbank.com/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jacobson, Tor & Kindell, Rikard & Lindé, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper F., 2008.
"Firm Default and Aggregate Fluctuations,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7083, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jacobson, Tor & Kindell, Rikard & Lindé, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2008. "Firm Default and Aggregate Fluctuations," Working Paper Series 226, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Tor Jacobson & Rikard Kindell & Jesper Linde & Kasper Roszbach, 2008. "Firm default and aggregate fluctuations," Working Papers 08-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Tor Jacobson & Jesper Lindé & Kasper Roszbach, 2011. "Firm default and aggregate fluctuations," International Finance Discussion Papers 1029, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Merton, Robert C., 1973.
"On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates,"
684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
- Darrell Duffie & Leandro Siata & Ke Wang, 2006.
"Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction With Stochastic Covariates,"
NBER Working Papers
11962, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Duffie, Darrell & Saita, Leandro & Wang, Ke, 2007. "Multi-period corporate default prediction with stochastic covariates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 635-665, March.
- Darrel Duffie & Leandro Saita & Ke Wang, 2005. "Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction With Stochastic Covariates," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-373, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Darrel Duffie & Leandro Saita & Ke Wang, 2005. "Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction With Stochastic Covariates," CARF F-Series CARF-F-047, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
- Sreedhar T. Bharath & Tyler Shumway, 2008. "Forecasting Default with the Merton Distance to Default Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1339-1369, May.
- Heitor Almeida & Murillo Campello & Michael S. Weisbach, 2004. "The Cash Flow Sensitivity of Cash," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1777-1804, 08.
- Opler, Tim & Pinkowitz, Lee & Stulz, Rene & Williamson, Rohan, 1999.
"The determinants and implications of corporate cash holdings,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 3-46, April.
- Tim Opler & Lee Pinkowitz & Rene Stulz & Rohan Williamson, 1997. "The Determinants and Implications of Corporate Cash Holdings," NBER Working Papers 6234, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lang, Larry & Poulsen, Annette & Stulz, Rene, 1995.
"Asset sales, firm performance, and the agency costs of managerial discretion,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 3-37, January.
- Larry Lang & Annette Poulsen & Rene M. Stulz, 1994. "Asset Sales, Firm Performance, and the Agency Costs of Managerial Discretion," NBER Working Papers 4654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Smith, Michael & Kohn, Robert, 1996.
"Nonparametric regression using Bayesian variable selection,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 317-343, December.
- Smith, M. & Kohn, R., . "Nonparametric Regression using Bayesian Variable Selection," Statistics Working Paper _009, Australian Graduate School of Management.
- Altman, Edward I., 1984. "The success of business failure prediction models : An international survey," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 171-198, June.
- Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, 09.
- McFadden, Daniel, 1974. "The measurement of urban travel demand," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 303-328, November.
- Altman, Edward I, 1971. "Railroad Bankruptcy Propensity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 26(2), pages 333-45, May.
- Jacobson, Tor & Linde, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2005.
"Exploring interactions between real activity and the financial stance,"
Journal of Financial Stability,
Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 308-341, April.
- Jacobson, Tor & Lindé, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2005. "Exploring Interactions between Real Activity and the Financial Stance," Working Paper Series 184, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-24, January.
- Rada Dakovic & Claudia Czado & Daniel Berg, 2010. "Bankruptcy prediction in Norway: a comparison study," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(17), pages 1739-1746.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0256. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lena Löfgren)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.