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Firm default and aggregate fluctuations

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  • Tor Jacobson
  • Rikard Kindell
  • Jesper Linde
  • Kasper Roszbach

Abstract

This paper studies the relation between macroeconomic fluctuations and corporate defaults while conditioning on industry affiliation and an extensive set of firm-specific factors. Using a logit approach on a panel data set for all incorporated Swedish businesses over 1990-2002, we find strong evidence for a substantial and stable impact of aggregate fluctuations. Macroeffects differ across industries in an economically intuitive way. Out-of-sample evaluations show our approach is superior to both models that exclude macro information and best fitting naive forecasting models. While firm-specific factors are useful in ranking firms’ relative riskiness, macroeconomic factors capture fluctuations in the absolute risk level.

Suggested Citation

  • Tor Jacobson & Rikard Kindell & Jesper Linde & Kasper Roszbach, 2008. "Firm default and aggregate fluctuations," Working Papers 08-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:08-21
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Giordani, Paolo & Jacobson, Tor & Schedvin, Erik von & Villani, Mattias, 2014. "Taking the Twists into Account: Predicting Firm Bankruptcy Risk with Splines of Financial Ratios," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(04), pages 1071-1099, August.
    2. Ferreira Filipe, Sara & Grammatikos, Theoharry & Michala, Dimitra, 2014. "Forecasting Distress in European SME Portfolios," MPRA Paper 53572, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Leonard I. Nakamura & Kasper Roszbach, 2010. "Credit ratings and bank monitoring ability," Working Papers 10-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    4. repec:eee:jimfin:v:82:y:2018:i:c:p:1-25 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Orth, Walter, 2013. "Multi-period credit default prediction with time-varying covariates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 214-222.
    6. Quiroz, Matias & Villani, Mattias & Kohn, Robert, 2015. "Speeding Up Mcmc By Efficient Data Subsampling," Working Paper Series 297, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    7. Angela González Arbeláez, 2010. "Determinantes del riesgo de crédito comercial en Colombia," Temas de Estabilidad Financiera 045, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Carlos González-Aguado & Enrique Moral-Benito, 2013. "Determinants of corporate default: a BMA approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(6), pages 511-514, April.
    9. Amberg, Niklas & Jacobson, Tor & von Schedvin, Erik & Townsend, Robert, 2016. "Curbing Shocks to Corporate Liquidity: The Role of Trade Credit," Working Paper Series 320, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    10. Orth, Walter, 2011. "Multi-period credit default prediction with time-varying covariates," MPRA Paper 30507, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Trabandt, Mathias & Walentin, Karl, 2011. "Introducing financial frictions and unemployment into a small open economy model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 1999-2041.
    12. Lana Ivicic & Sasa Cerovac, 2009. "Credit Risk Assessment of Corporate Sector in Croatia," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 33(4), pages 373-399.
    13. repec:spr:annopr:v:262:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s10479-016-2143-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Ellingsen, Tore & Jacobson, Tor & von Schedvin, Erik, 2016. "Trade Credit: Contract-Level Evidence Contradicts Current Theories," Working Paper Series 315, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    15. Carlos González‐Aguado & Javier Suarez, 2015. "Interest Rates and Credit Risk," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(2-3), pages 445-480, March.
    16. Ongena, Steven & Popov, Alexander & Udell, Gregory F., 2013. "“When the cat's away the mice will play”: Does regulation at home affect bank risk-taking abroad?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(3), pages 727-750.
    17. Patrick Van Roy & Stijn Ferrari & Cristina Vespro, 2018. "Sensitivity of credit risk stress test results: Modelling issues with an application to Belgium," Working Paper Research 338, National Bank of Belgium.
    18. Nakamura, Leonard I. & Roszbach, Kasper, 2016. "Credit Ratings, Private Information, and Bank Monitoring Ability," Working Papers 16-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    19. Filipe, Sara Ferreira & Grammatikos, Theoharry & Michala, Dimitra, 2016. "Forecasting distress in European SME portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 112-135.
    20. Lenno Uuskula, 2015. "Firm turnover and inflation dynamics," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2015-01, Bank of Estonia, revised 03 Feb 2015.
    21. Simon Firestone & Marcelo Rezende, 2016. "Are Banks’ Internal Risk Parameters Consistent? Evidence from Syndicated Loans," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 211-242, October.
    22. Alexander Popov, 2016. "Monetary Policy, Bank Capital, and Credit Supply: A Role for Discouraged and Informally Rejected Firms," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(1), pages 95-141, March.
    23. Quiroz, Matias & Villani, Mattias, 2013. "Dynamic mixture-of-experts models for longitudinal and discrete-time survival data," Working Paper Series 268, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    24. Konstantin Belyaev & Aelita Belyaeva & Tomas Konecny & Jakub Seidler & Martin Vojtek, 2012. "Macroeconomic Factors as Drivers of LGD Prediction: Empirical Evidence from the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2012/12, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    25. Castellares, Renzo & Salas, Jorge, 2016. "Contractual Imperfections and the Impact of Crises on Trade: Evidence from Industry-Level Data," Working Papers 2016-001, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business failures;

    JEL classification:

    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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