IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgfe/2000-47.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Parameterizing credit risk models with rating data

Author

Listed:
  • Mark S. Carey
  • Mark Hrycay

Abstract

Estimates of average default probabilities for borrowers assigned to each of a financial institution's internal credit risk rating grades are crucial inputs to portfolio credit risk models. Such models are increasingly used in setting financial institution capital structure, in internal control and compensation systems, in asset-backed security design, and are being considered for use in setting regulatory capital requirements for banks. This paper empirically examines properties of the major methods currently used to estimate average default probabilities by grade. Evidence of potential problems of bias, instability, and gaming is presented. With care, and perhaps judicious application of multiple methods, satisfactory estimates may be possible. In passing, evidence is presented about other properties of internal and rating-agency ratings.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark S. Carey & Mark Hrycay, 2000. "Parameterizing credit risk models with rating data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-47, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2000-47
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2000/200047/200047abs.html
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2000/200047/200047pap.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pamela Nickell & William Perraudin & Simone Varotto, 2001. "Ratings versus equity-based credit risk modelling: an empirical analysis," Bank of England working papers 132, Bank of England.
    2. Gordy, Michael B., 2000. "A comparative anatomy of credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 119-149, January.
    3. Michael B. Gordy, 2000. "Credit VAR and risk-bucket capital rules: a reconciliation," Proceedings 685, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    4. Nickell, Pamela & Perraudin, William & Varotto, Simone, 2000. "Stability of rating transitions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 203-227, January.
    5. Duffie, Darrell & Lando, David, 2001. "Term Structures of Credit Spreads with Incomplete Accounting Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 633-664, May.
    6. Altman, Edward I. & Suggitt, Heather J., 2000. "Default rates in the syndicated bank loan market: A mortality analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 229-253, January.
    7. Mark Carey, 1998. "Credit Risk in Private Debt Portfolios," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1363-1387, August.
    8. Delianedis, Gordon & Geske, Robert, 1998. "Credit Risk and Risk Neutral Default Probabilities: Information About Migrations and Defaults," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt7dm2d31p, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    9. Chunsheng Zhou, 1997. "Default correlation: an analytical result," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. William B. English & William R. Nelson, 1999. "Bank risk rating of business loans," Proceedings 619, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Arnoud W. A. Boot & Todd T. Milbourn & Anjolein Schmeits, 2006. "Credit Ratings as Coordination Mechanisms," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 81-118.
    2. Douglas D. Evanoff & Larry D. Wall, 2000. "Subordinated debt and bank capital reform," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2000-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    3. Emel, Ahmet Burak & Oral, Muhittin & Reisman, Arnold & Yolalan, Reha, 2003. "A credit scoring approach for the commercial banking sector," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 103-123, June.
    4. Ismail Tijjani Idris & Sabri Nayan, 2016. "The Moderating Role of Loan Monitoring on the Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and Non-performing Loans in Association of Southeast Asian Nations Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 402-408.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit ; Risk management ; Credit ratings;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2000-47. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Franz Osorio). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.