IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Internal Ratings Systems, Implied Credit Risk and the Consistency of Banks’ Risk Classification Policies

  • Jacobson, Tor

    ()

    (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

  • Lindé, Jesper

    ()

    (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

  • Roszbach, Kasper

    ()

    (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

Counterpart risk rating is at the heart of the banking business. In the new Basel II regulation, internal ratings have been given a central role. Although much research has been done on external ratings, much less is known about banks´ internal ratings. This paper presents new quantitative evidence on the consistency of internal ratings based on panel data from the complete business loan portfolios of two Swedish banks and a credit bureau over the period 1997-2000. We study rating class distributions, - transitions and default behavior and compute the credit loss distributions that each rating system implies by means of a semi-parametric Monte Carlo re-sampling method following Carey (1998). Our results reveal, for a portfolio with identical counterparts, substantial differences in the implied riskiness between banks. Such differences could translate into different amounts of required economic capital and create (new) incentives to securitize part of their loan portfolios or increase the riskiness of loans in certain rating classes. We also shed light on the quantitative importance of portfolio composition, portfolio size and the forecast horizon for loss distributions. For example, with common portfolio parameters, credit risk can be reduced by up to 40 percent by doubling the loan portfolio size. We also discuss the relation between loss distributions and the desirable level of insolvency risk.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.riksbank.se/upload/8378/WP_155.pdf
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 404 Not Found. If this is indeed the case, please notify (Lena Löfgren)


Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) in its series Working Paper Series with number 155.

as
in new window

Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 01 Dec 2003
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in Journal of Banking and Finance.
Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0155
Contact details of provider: Postal: Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden
Phone: 08 - 787 00 00
Fax: 08-21 05 31
Web page: http://www.riksbank.com/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Marshall E. Blume & Felix Lim & A. Craig Mackinlay, 1998. "The Declining Credit Quality of U.S. Corporate Debt: Myth or Reality?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1389-1413, 08.
  2. Altman, Edward I, 1989. " Measuring Corporate Bond Mortality and Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(4), pages 909-22, September.
  3. Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2001. "Prototype risk rating system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 47-95, January.
  4. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, 09.
  5. repec:fth:pennfi:67 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Calem, Paul S. & LaCour-Little, Michael, 2004. "Risk-based capital requirements for mortgage loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 647-672, March.
  7. Altman, Edward I. & Rijken, Herbert A., 2004. "How rating agencies achieve rating stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2679-2714, November.
  8. Marshall E. Blume & Felix Lim & A. Craig MacKinlay, . "The Declining Credit Quality of US Corporate Debt: Myth or Reality?," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 03-98, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  9. Carey, Mark & Hrycay, Mark, 2001. "Parameterizing credit risk models with rating data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 197-270, January.
  10. Altman, Edward I. & Saunders, Anthony, 2001. "An analysis and critique of the BIS proposal on capital adequacy and ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 25-46, January.
  11. Treacy, William F. & Carey, Mark, 2000. "Credit risk rating systems at large US banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 167-201, January.
  12. Pamela Nickell & William Perraudin & Simone Varotto, 2001. "Stability of ratings transitions," Bank of England working papers 133, Bank of England.
  13. Gordy, Michael B., 2003. "A risk-factor model foundation for ratings-based bank capital rules," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 199-232, July.
  14. Hamerle, Alfred & Liebig, Thilo & Rösch, Daniel, 2003. "Credit Risk Factor Modeling and the Basel II IRB Approach," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2003,02, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  15. Mark Carey, 2000. "Dimensions of credit risk and their relationship to economic capital requirements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-18, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. Loretta J. Mester & Leonard I. Nakamura & Micheline Renault, 2004. "Transactions accounts and loan monitoring," Working Papers 04-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  17. Poon, Winnie P. H., 2003. "Are unsolicited credit ratings biased downward?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 593-614, April.
  18. Cantor, Richard & Packer, Frank, 1997. "Differences of opinion and selection bias in the credit rating industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(10), pages 1395-1417, October.
  19. Marshall E. Blume & Felix Lim & A. Craig MacKinlay, . "The Declining Credit Quality of US Corporate Debt: Myth or Reality?," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 3-98, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  20. Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Lindé, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2002. "Capital Charges under Basel II: Corporate Credit Risk Modelling and the Macro Economy," Working Paper Series 142, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  21. Altman, Edward I. & Haldeman, Robert G. & Narayanan, P., 1977. "ZETATM analysis A new model to identify bankruptcy risk of corporations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 29-54, June.
  22. Dietsch, Michel & Petey, Joel, 2002. "The credit risk in SME loans portfolios: Modeling issues, pricing, and capital requirements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 303-322, March.
  23. Leonard I. Nakamura & Kasper Roszbach., 2013. "Credit ratings and bank monitoring ability," Working Papers 13-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  24. Estrella, Arturo, 2004. "The cyclical behavior of optimal bank capital," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1469-1498, June.
  25. Altman, Edward I., 1998. "The importance and subtlety of credit rating migration," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(10-11), pages 1231-1247, October.
  26. Diamond, Douglas W, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414, July.
  27. Loffler, Gunter, 2004. "Ratings versus market-based measures of default risk in portfolio governance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2715-2746, November.
  28. Mark Carey, 2000. "Dimensions of Credit Risk and Their Relationship to Economic Capital Requirements," NBER Working Papers 7629, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Tor Jacobson & Jesper Lindé & Kasper Roszbach, 2005. "Credit Risk Versus Capital Requirements under Basel II: Are SME Loans and Retail Credit Really Different?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 43-75, October.
  30. Mark Carey, 1998. "Credit Risk in Private Debt Portfolios," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1363-1387, 08.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0155. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lena Löfgren)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.