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The structure of credit risk: spread volatility and ratings transitions

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  • Rudiger Kiesel
  • William Perraudin
  • Alex Taylor

Abstract

Knowing the relative riskiness of different types of credit exposure is important for policy-makers designing regulatory capital requirements and for firms allocating economic capital. This paper analyses the risk structure of credit exposures with different maturities and credit qualities. It focuses particularly on risks associated with (i) ratings transitions and (ii) spread changes for given ratings. The analysis shows that, for high-quality debt, most risk stems from spread changes. This is significant because several recently proposed credit risk models assume no spread risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Rudiger Kiesel & William Perraudin & Alex Taylor, 2001. "The structure of credit risk: spread volatility and ratings transitions," Bank of England working papers 131, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:131
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Gürtler, Marc & Heithecker, Dirk, 2005. "Multi-period defaults and maturity effects on economic capital in a ratings-based default-mode model," Working Papers FW19V2, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Institute of Finance.
    2. Jackson, Patricia & Perraudin, William & Saporta, Victoria, 2002. "Regulatory and "economic" solvency standards for internationally active banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 953-976, May.
    3. Jobst, Norbert J. & Zenios, Stavros A., 2005. "On the simulation of portfolios of interest rate and credit risk sensitive securities," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 298-324, March.
    4. Simone Varotto, 2008. "An Assessment of the Internal Rating Based Approach in Basel II," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2008-04, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    5. Jobst, Norbert J. & Mitra, Gautam & Zenios, Stavros A., 2006. "Integrating market and credit risk: A simulation and optimisation perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 717-742, February.
    6. Bliss, Robert, 2002. "Comments on "Credit ratings and the BIS capital adequacy reform agenda"," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 923-928, May.
    7. Marco Realdon, 2007. "Extended-Gaussian Term Structure Models and Credit Risk Applications," Discussion Papers 07/27, Department of Economics, University of York.
    8. Jan Annaert & Anouk Claes & Marc De Ceuster, 2006. "Intertemporal stability of the European credit spread co-movement structure1," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 23-32.
    9. Nickell, Pamela & Perraudin, William & Varotto, Simone, 2007. "Ratings-based credit risk modelling: An empirical analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 434-451.
    10. Rongda Chen & Liu Yang & Weijin Wang & Ling Tang, 2015. "Discovering the impact of systemic and idiosyncratic risk factors on credit spread of corporate bond within the framework of intelligent knowledge management," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 234(1), pages 3-15, November.
    11. Simone Varotto, 2007. "Tests on the Accuracy of Basel II," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2007-09, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    12. Mehdi Mili, 2018. "Systemic risk spillovers in sovereign credit default swaps in Europe: a spatial approach," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(2), pages 133-143, March.
    13. Mark Illing & Graydon Paulin, 2004. "The New Basel Capital Accord and the Cyclical Behaviour of Bank Capital," Staff Working Papers 04-30, Bank of Canada.

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