IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/boe/boeewp/132.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Ratings versus equity-based credit risk modelling: an empirical analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Pamela Nickell
  • William Perraudin
  • Simone Varotto

Abstract

Banks have recently developed new techniques for gauging the credit risk associated with portfolios of illiquid, defaultable instruments. These techniques could revolutionise banks' management of credit risk and could in the longer term serve as a more risk-sensitive basis for calculating regulatory capital on banks' loan books than the current 8% capital charge. In this paper, examples are implemented of the two main types of credit risk model developed so far: ratings-based and equity-based approaches. Using price data on large eurobond portfolios, the paper assesses, on an out-of-sample basis, how well these models track the risks they claim to measure.

Suggested Citation

  • Pamela Nickell & William Perraudin & Simone Varotto, 2001. "Ratings versus equity-based credit risk modelling: an empirical analysis," Bank of England working papers 132, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:132
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/archive/Documents/historicpubs/workingpapers/2001/wp132.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jackson, Patricia & Perraudin, William, 2000. "Regulatory implications of credit risk modelling," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 1-14, January.
    2. Gordy, Michael B., 2000. "A comparative anatomy of credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 119-149, January.
    3. Fisher, Lawrence, 1984. " Contingent Claims Analysis of Corporate Capital Structures: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 625-627, July.
    4. Darryll Hendricks, 1996. "Evaluation of value-at-risk models using historical data," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Apr, pages 39-69.
    5. Jones, E Philip & Mason, Scott P & Rosenfeld, Eric, 1984. " Contingent Claims Analysis of Corporate Capital Structures: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 611-625, July.
    6. Nickell, Pamela & Perraudin, William & Varotto, Simone, 2000. "Stability of rating transitions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 203-227, January.
    7. Lopez, Jose A. & Saidenberg, Marc R., 2000. "Evaluating credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 151-165, January.
    8. M.J.B. Hall, 1996. "The amendment to the capital accord to incorporate market risk," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 49(197), pages 271-277.
    9. Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2000. "A comparative analysis of current credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 59-117, January.
    10. Patricia Jackson & David Maude & William Perraudin, 1998. "Bank Capital and Value at Risk," Bank of England working papers 79, Bank of England.
    11. Mingo, John J., 2000. "Policy implications of the Federal Reserve study of credit risk models at major US banking institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 15-33, January.
    12. Gregory R. Duffee, 1998. "The Relation Between Treasury Yields and Corporate Bond Yield Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 2225-2241, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Eva Catarineu-Rabell & Patricia Jackson & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2005. "Procyclicality and the new Basel Accord - banks’ choice of loan rating system," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 26(3), pages 537-557, October.
    2. Mark Carey, 2000. "Dimensions of Credit Risk and Their Relationship to Economic Capital Requirements," NBER Working Papers 7629, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Arnoud W. A. Boot & Todd T. Milbourn & Anjolein Schmeits, 2006. "Credit Ratings as Coordination Mechanisms," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 81-118.
    4. Maximilian J.B. Hall, 2001. "The basle Committee's proposals for a new capital adequacy assessment framework: a critique," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(217), pages 111-179.
    5. Mark S. Carey, 2000. "Dimensions of credit risk and their relationship to economic capital requirements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-18, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Lea Zicchino, 2006. "A Model Of Bank Capital, Lending And The Macroeconomy: Basel I Versus Basel Ii," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 74(s1), pages 50-77, September.
    7. Carol Alexandra, 2003. "The Present, Future and Imperfect of Financial Risk Management," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2003-12, Henley Business School, Reading University, revised Feb 2004.
    8. Jackson, Patricia & Perraudin, William & Saporta, Victoria, 2002. "Regulatory and "economic" solvency standards for internationally active banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 953-976, May.
    9. Loffler, Gunter, 2003. "The effects of estimation error on measures of portfolio credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1427-1453, August.
    10. Rudiger Kiesel & William Perraudin & Alex Taylor, 2001. "The structure of credit risk: spread volatility and ratings transitions," Bank of England working papers 131, Bank of England.
    11. Jackson, Patricia & Perraudin, William, 2000. "Regulatory implications of credit risk modelling," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 1-14, January.
    12. Escalante, Cesar L. & Barry, Peter J. & Park, Timothy A. & Demir, Ebru, 2004. "Farm-Level And Macroeconomic Determinants Of Farm Credit Migration Rates," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20227, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    13. Carey, Mark, 2002. "A guide to choosing absolute bank capital requirements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 929-951, May.
    14. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 2004. "Coordination risk and the price of debt," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 133-153, February.
    15. Mark S. Carey, 2002. "A guide to choosing absolute bank capital requirements," International Finance Discussion Papers 726, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Lopez, Jose A. & Saidenberg, Marc R., 2000. "Evaluating credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 151-165, January.
    17. Arsalan Azamighaimasi, 2013. "Portfolio Risk and Dependence Modeling," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 4(1), pages 151-158, January.
    18. Mark S. Carey & Mark Hrycay, 2000. "Parameterizing credit risk models with rating data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-47, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:132. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Digital Media Team). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/boegvuk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.