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Ratings versus equity-based credit risk modelling: an empirical analysis

Author

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  • Pamela Nickell
  • William Perraudin
  • Simone Varotto

Abstract

Banks have recently developed new techniques for gauging the credit risk associated with portfolios of illiquid, defaultable instruments. These techniques could revolutionise banks' management of credit risk and could in the longer term serve as a more risk-sensitive basis for calculating regulatory capital on banks' loan books than the current 8% capital charge. In this paper, examples are implemented of the two main types of credit risk model developed so far: ratings-based and equity-based approaches. Using price data on large eurobond portfolios, the paper assesses, on an out-of-sample basis, how well these models track the risks they claim to measure.

Suggested Citation

  • Pamela Nickell & William Perraudin & Simone Varotto, 2001. "Ratings versus equity-based credit risk modelling: an empirical analysis," Bank of England working papers 132, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:132
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    File URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/archive/Documents/historicpubs/workingpapers/2001/wp132.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Eva Catarineu-Rabell & Patricia Jackson & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2005. "Procyclicality and the new Basel Accord - banks’ choice of loan rating system," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 26(3), pages 537-557, October.
    2. Jackson, Patricia & Perraudin, William & Saporta, Victoria, 2002. "Regulatory and "economic" solvency standards for internationally active banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 953-976, May.
    3. Mark Carey, 2001. "Dimensions of Credit Risk and Their Relationship to Economic Capital Requirements," NBER Chapters, in: Prudential Supervision: What Works and What Doesn't, pages 197-232, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Arsalan Azamighaimasi, 2013. "Portfolio Risk and Dependence Modeling," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 4(1), pages 151-158, January.
    5. Lea Zicchino, 2006. "A Model Of Bank Capital, Lending And The Macroeconomy: Basel I Versus Basel Ii," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 74(s1), pages 50-77, September.
    6. Loffler, Gunter, 2003. "The effects of estimation error on measures of portfolio credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1427-1453, August.
    7. Rudiger Kiesel & William Perraudin & Alex Taylor, 2001. "The structure of credit risk: spread volatility and ratings transitions," Bank of England working papers 131, Bank of England.
    8. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 2004. "Coordination risk and the price of debt," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 133-153, February.
    9. Jackson, Patricia & Perraudin, William, 2000. "Regulatory implications of credit risk modelling," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 1-14, January.
    10. Carey, Mark & Hrycay, Mark, 2001. "Parameterizing credit risk models with rating data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 197-270, January.
    11. Escalante, Cesar L. & Barry, Peter J. & Park, Timothy A. & Demir, Ebru, 2004. "Farm-Level And Macroeconomic Determinants Of Farm Credit Migration Rates," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20227, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    12. Arnoud W. A. Boot & Todd T. Milbourn & Anjolein Schmeits, 2006. "Credit Ratings as Coordination Mechanisms," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 81-118.
    13. Maximilian J.B. Hall, 2001. "The basle Committee's proposals for a new capital adequacy assessment framework: a critique," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(217), pages 111-179.
    14. Carey, Mark, 2002. "A guide to choosing absolute bank capital requirements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 929-951, May.
    15. Lopez, Jose A. & Saidenberg, Marc R., 2000. "Evaluating credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 151-165, January.
    16. Carol Alexandra, 2003. "The Present, Future and Imperfect of Financial Risk Management," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2003-12, Henley Business School, University of Reading, revised Feb 2004.

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