IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/insuma/v46y2010i3p500-510.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The development of a simple and intuitive rating system under Solvency II

Author

Listed:
  • Van Laere, Elisabeth
  • Baesens, Bart

Abstract

Regulatory authorities pay considerable attention to setting minimum capital levels for different kinds of financial institutions. Solvency II, the European Commission's planned reform of the regulation of insurance companies is well underway. One of its consequences will be a shift in focus to internally based models in determining the regulatory capital needed to cover unexpected losses. This evolution emphasises the importance of credit risk assessment through internal ratings. In light of this new prudential regulation, this paper suggests a Basel II compliant approach to predicting credit ratings for non-rated corporations and evaluates its performance compared to external ratings. The paper provides an interesting modelling of non-financial European companies rated by S&P. In developing the model, broad applicability is set as an important boundary condition. Even though the model developed is fairly simple and maintains a high level of granularity, it gives high rates of accuracy and is very interpretable.

Suggested Citation

  • Van Laere, Elisabeth & Baesens, Bart, 2010. "The development of a simple and intuitive rating system under Solvency II," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 500-510, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:46:y:2010:i:3:p:500-510
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167-6687(10)00010-7
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Florez-Lopez, Raquel, 2007. "Modelling of insurers' rating determinants. An application of machine learning techniques and statistical models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 183(3), pages 1488-1512, December.
    2. Platt, Harlan D. & Platt, Marjorie B., 1991. "A note on the use of industry-relative ratios in bankruptcy prediction," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 1183-1194, December.
    3. Marshall E. Blume & Felix Lim & A. Craig MacKinlay, "undated". "The Declining Credit Quality of US Corporate Debt: Myth or Reality?," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 3-98, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    4. Hand, John R M & Holthausen, Robert W & Leftwich, Richard W, 1992. "The Effect of Bond Rating Agency Announcements on Bond and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 733-752, June.
    5. Martin Eling & Hato Schmeiser & Joan T. Schmit, 2007. "The Solvency II Process: Overview and Critical Analysis," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 10(1), pages 69-85, March.
    6. Katz, Steven, 1974. "The Price Adjustment Process of Bonds to Rating Reclassifications: A Test of Bond Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 551-559, May.
    7. Tabakis, Evangelos & Vinci, Anna, 2002. "Analysing and combining multiple credit assessments of financial institutions," Working Paper Series 123, European Central Bank.
    8. Yang, Z. R. & Platt, Marjorie B. & Platt, Harlan D., 1999. "Probabilistic Neural Networks in Bankruptcy Prediction," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 67-74, February.
    9. William B. English & William R. Nelson, 1998. "Bank risk rating of business loans," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-51, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Scott, James, 1981. "The probability of bankruptcy: A comparison of empirical predictions and theoretical models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 317-344, September.
    11. Peel, MJ & Peel, DA & Pope, PF, 1986. "Predicting corporate failure-- Some results for the UK corporate sector," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 5-12.
    12. Andrea Beltratti & Giuseppe Corvino, 2008. "Why are Insurance Companies Different? The Limits of Convergence Among Financial Institutions*," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 33(3), pages 363-388, July.
    13. Altman, Edward I. & Marco, Giancarlo & Varetto, Franco, 1994. "Corporate distress diagnosis: Comparisons using linear discriminant analysis and neural networks (the Italian experience)," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 505-529, May.
    14. Jankowitsch, Rainer & Pichler, Stefan & Schwaiger, Walter S.A., 2007. "Modelling the economic value of credit rating systems," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 181-198, January.
    15. Carey, Mark & Hrycay, Mark, 2001. "Parameterizing credit risk models with rating data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 197-270, January.
    16. Altman, Edward I. & Suggitt, Heather J., 2000. "Default rates in the syndicated bank loan market: A mortality analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 229-253, January.
    17. Marshall E. Blume & Felix Lim & A. Craig Mackinlay, 1998. "The Declining Credit Quality of U.S. Corporate Debt: Myth or Reality?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1389-1413, August.
    18. Balcaen, Sofie & Ooghe, Hubert, 2006. "35 years of studies on business failure: an overview of the classic statistical methodologies and their related problems," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 63-93.
    19. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    20. Amato, Jeffery D. & Furfine, Craig H., 2004. "Are credit ratings procyclical?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2641-2677, November.
    21. Pamela K. Coats & L. Franklin Fant, 1993. "Recognizing Financial Distress Patterns Using a Neural Network Tool," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 22(3), Fall.
    22. Berger, Lawrence A & Cummins, J David & Tennyson, Sharon, 1992. "Reinsurance and the Liability Insurance Crisis," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 253-272, July.
    23. Suzan Hol, 2006. "The influence of the business cycle on bankruptcy probability," Discussion Papers 466, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    24. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    25. Patrick L. Brockett & Linda L. Golden & Jaeho Jang & Chuanhou Yang, 2006. "A Comparison of Neural Network, Statistical Methods, and Variable Choice for Life Insurers' Financial Distress Prediction," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 73(3), pages 397-419, September.
    26. Brunner, Antje & Pieter, Jan & Weber, Martin, 2000. "Information production in credit relationship: On the role of internal ratings in commercial banking," CFS Working Paper Series 2000/10, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    27. Altman, Edward I, 1989. " Measuring Corporate Bond Mortality and Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(4), pages 909-922, September.
    28. Wilcox, Jw, 1973. "Prediction Of Business Failure Using Accounting Data," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11, pages 163-179.
    29. W. Braddock Hickman, 1958. "Corporate Bond Quality and Investor Experience," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number hick58-1, July.
    30. Krahnen, Jan Pieter & Weber, Martin, 2001. "Generally accepted rating principles: A primer," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 3-23, January.
    31. Ooghe, H. & Spaenjers, C. & Pieter vandermoere, 2005. "Business failure prediction: simple-intuitive models versus statistical models," Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School Working Paper Series 2005-22, Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School.
    32. Marshall E. Blume & Felix Lim & A. Craig MacKinlay, "undated". "The Declining Credit Quality of US Corporate Debt: Myth or Reality?," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 03-98, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    33. Pinches, George E & Mingo, Kent A, 1973. "A Multivariate Analysis of Industrial Bond Ratings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 1-18, March.
    34. João Fernandes, 2005. "Corporate Credit Risk Modeling: Quantitative Rating System And Probability Of Default Estimation," Finance 0505013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    35. West, Robert Craig, 1985. "A factor-analytic approach to bank condition," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 253-266, June.
    36. Grunert, Jens & Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2005. "The role of non-financial factors in internal credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 509-531, February.
    37. Philip Bunn & Victoria Redwood, 2003. "Company accounts based modelling of business failures and the implications for financial stability," Bank of England working papers 210, Bank of England.
    38. Mark S. Carey & William F. Treacy, 1998. "Credit risk rating at large U.S. banks," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), vol. 84(Nov), pages 897-921, September.
    39. Altman, Edward I. & Rijken, Herbert A., 2004. "How rating agencies achieve rating stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2679-2714, November.
    40. Pinches, George E & Mingo, Kent A, 1975. "The Role of Subordination and Industrial Bond Ratings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(1), pages 201-206, March.
    41. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    42. Beaver, Wh, 1966. "Financial Ratios As Predictors Of Failure," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4, pages 71-111.
    43. Sudheer Chava & Robert A. Jarrow, 2008. "Bankruptcy Prediction with Industry Effects," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 21, pages 517-549, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    44. Altman, Edward I. & Haldeman, Robert G. & Narayanan, P., 1977. "ZETATM analysis A new model to identify bankruptcy risk of corporations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 29-54, June.
    45. Jennifer J. Gaver & Steven W. Pottier, 2005. "The Role of Holding Company Financial Information in the Insurer‐Rating Process: Evidence From the Property‐Liability Industry," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 72(1), pages 77-103, March.
    46. Dean Fantazzini & Silvia Figini, 2009. "Random Survival Forests Models for SME Credit Risk Measurement," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 29-45, March.
    47. W. Braddock Hickman, 1958. "Index to "Corporate Bond Quality and Investor Experience"," NBER Chapters, in: Corporate Bond Quality and Investor Experience, pages 531-536, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    48. Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-124, January.
    49. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 2(Oct), pages 37-53.
    50. repec:fth:pennfi:67 is not listed on IDEAS
    51. Horrigan, Jo, 1966. "Determination Of Long-Term Credit Standing With Financial Ratios," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4, pages 44-62.
    52. Frydman, Halina & Altman, Edward I & Kao, Duen-Li, 1985. "Introducing Recursive Partitioning for Financial Classification: The Case of Financial Distress," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 269-291, March.
    53. Ang, James S & Patel, Kiritkumar A, 1975. "Bond Rating Methods: Comparison and Validation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(2), pages 631-640, May.
    54. Kao, Chihwa & Wu, Chunchi, 1990. "Two-Step Estimation of Linear Models with Ordinal Unobserved Variables: The Case of Corporate Bonds," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(3), pages 317-325, July.
    55. Mayers, David & Smith, Clifford W, Jr, 1990. "On the Corporate Demand for Insurance: Evidence from the Reinsurance Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(1), pages 19-40, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. René Doff, 2016. "The Final Solvency II Framework: Will It Be Effective?," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 41(4), pages 587-607, October.
    2. Laurens Swinkels & David Blitz & Winfried Hallerbach & Pim Vliet, 2018. "Equity Solvency Capital Requirements - What Institutional Regulation Can Learn from Private Investor Regulation," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 43(4), pages 633-652, October.
    3. Eling, Martin & Pankoke, David, 2013. "Basis Risk, Procylicality, and Systemic Risk in the Solvency II Equity Risk Module," Working Papers on Finance 1306, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    4. A.V. Larionov, 2020. "Assessing the Financial Stability of Insurance Companies by Analyzing the Dynamics of Cash Flows," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 19(2), pages 208-224.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ken Hung & Hui Wen Cheng & Shih-shen Chen & Ying-Chen Huang, 2013. "Factors that Affect Credit Rating: An Application of Ordered Probit Models," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 94-108, December.
    2. Jens Hilscher & Mungo Wilson, 2017. "Credit Ratings and Credit Risk: Is One Measure Enough?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(10), pages 3414-3437, October.
    3. Manzoni, Katiuscia, 2004. "Modeling Eurobond credit ratings and forecasting downgrade probability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 277-300.
    4. Şaban Çelik, 2013. "Micro Credit Risk Metrics: A Comprehensive Review," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 233-272, October.
    5. Jens Hilscher & Mungo Wilson, 2011. "Credit ratings and credit risk," Working Papers 31, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    6. Mizen, Paul & Tsoukas, Serafeim, 2012. "Forecasting US bond default ratings allowing for previous and initial state dependence in an ordered probit model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 273-287.
    7. fernández, María t. Tascón & gutiérrez, Francisco J. Castaño, 2012. "Variables y Modelos Para La Identificación y Predicción Del Fracaso Empresarial: Revisión de La Investigación Empírica Reciente," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 7-58.
    8. Altman, Edward I. & Saunders, Anthony, 1997. "Credit risk measurement: Developments over the last 20 years," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(11-12), pages 1721-1742, December.
    9. Florez-Lopez, Raquel, 2007. "Modelling of insurers' rating determinants. An application of machine learning techniques and statistical models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 183(3), pages 1488-1512, December.
    10. Koresh Galil, 2005. "Ratings as Predictors of Default in the Long Term:an Empirical Investigation," Working Papers 0505, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    11. Hwang, Ruey-Ching & Chung, Huimin & Chu, C.K., 2010. "Predicting issuer credit ratings using a semiparametric method," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 120-137, January.
    12. Rubina Shaheen & Attiya Yasmin Javid, 2014. "Effect of Credit Rating on Firm Performance and Stock Return; Evidence form KSE Listed Firms," PIDE-Working Papers 2014:104, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    13. Ruey-Ching Hwang, 2013. "Forecasting credit ratings with the varying-coefficient model," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(12), pages 1947-1965, December.
    14. Shen, Chung-Hua & Huang, Yu-Li & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2012. "Asymmetric benchmarking in bank credit rating," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 171-193.
    15. Jones, Stewart & Johnstone, David & Wilson, Roy, 2015. "An empirical evaluation of the performance of binary classifiers in the prediction of credit ratings changes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 72-85.
    16. Grunert, Jens & Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2005. "The role of non-financial factors in internal credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 509-531, February.
    17. Ruey‐Ching Hwang & K. F. Cheng & Cheng‐Few Lee, 2009. "On multiple‐class prediction of issuer credit ratings," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(5), pages 535-550, September.
    18. Jacobson, Tor & Linde, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2006. "Internal ratings systems, implied credit risk and the consistency of banks' risk classification policies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1899-1926, July.
    19. Mäkinen, Taneli & Li, Fan & Mercatanti, Andrea & Silvestrini, Andrea, 2022. "Causal analysis of central bank holdings of corporate bonds under interference," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    20. Yan-Shing Chen & Po-Hsin Ho & Chih-Yung Lin & Wei-Che Tsai, 2012. "Applying recurrent event analysis to understand the causes of changes in firm credit ratings," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(12), pages 977-988, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:46:y:2010:i:3:p:500-510. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505554 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.