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The influence of the business cycle on bankruptcy probability

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Abstract

I combine two fields of research on default prediction by empirically testing a bankruptcy prediction function where unlisted firms are evaluated on the basis of both their financial statement analysis and the macroeconomic environment. This combination is found to improve the default prediction compared to financial statements alone. The GDP-gap, a production index and the money supply M1 in combination with some financial health indicators for individual firms are found to be significant predictors on default for Norwegian firms during both a recovery and expansion in the 1990's.

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  • Suzan Hol, 2006. "The influence of the business cycle on bankruptcy probability," Discussion Papers 466, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:466
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    Cited by:

    1. James W. Kolari & Ivan Pastor Sanz, 2017. "Systemic risk measurement in banking using self-organizing maps," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 18(4), pages 338-358, November.
    2. Van Laere, Elisabeth & Baesens, Bart, 2010. "The development of a simple and intuitive rating system under Solvency II," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 500-510, June.
    3. Alessandro Zeli, 2014. "The financial distress indicators trend in Italy: an analysis of medium-size enterprises," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 4(2), pages 199-221, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bankruptcy prediction; macroeconomic environment; financial ratios; logit model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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